[Jeff Head]

I do not believe the English could have pulled it off at that stage, with our without the Napoleanic war. I do not believe they would have been able to subjugate the continent. But, that's just my opinion. Heck, in both wars (Revolutionary and 1812) they took the Capital and it in the end it netted them the same in both instances ... nada.

WRT:

But in a nation with as messianic a teleology as we have, serious introspection and study of history is not ever going to happen--especially when you consider the fact that the war was started by the DemocRATS

I aree. This was one of the contributing reasons for my writing of my book, Dragon's Fury - Breath of Fire.

[Poohbah]

In the Revolutionary War AND the War of 1812, France served as essentially a strategic decoy, preventing England from exerting its full power. The element of contingency was very high throughout the entire period.

Had Boney's luck broken in the opposite direction during the previous decade (as it damn near did), there would have been two things going in favor of England: (a) no significant threat to its national interests in Europe (France would be a broken nation, and the concept of the nation-in-arms probably would have died with her), which would let them throw more effort into the mix; and (b) a lot of unemployed soldiers ready for service as mercenaries.

When Wellington's soldiers got hired for duty in the various wars of independence in Central and South America, they didn't do so out of a profound love for liberty--but they sure as hell changed the face of the Americas, for good or for bad.

Again, this also supposes that England would have WANTED America back.

Like I say, the War of 1812 almost turned into a war for national survival. With a lot more British resources (troops, ships, supplies, and money) available for commitment to America, and the concept of the "nation-in-arms" having proven its apparent non-utility, America might have fallen--or at least been severely truncated. (One potential strategy: the British ignore most of New England and the Canadian border, and instead seize the Maine and the Carolina seaboard--specifically to grab the stands of white fir and live oak, and thus cripple American shipbuilding for a couple of generations, until iron hulls begin to appear.)

Another fascinating what-if: Boney gets a sense of when to quit pushing his luck in 1806 or so. Meanwhile, the American War Hawks put together a sensible military program during the 1804-1811 timeframe. With Europe secure under French rule, and America's full military potential in place, particularly at sea, there existed every possibility that America and France might team up to rid the world of "Perfidious Albion" once and for all. So there's a LOT of potential counterfactuals that could have been in play during that time.

BTW, I think your novel's scenario is a little to pedestrian. My guess: China is going to be the first nuclear-armed nation to fight a full-blown civil war--and that might pose a greater threat to American interests than anything China might be interested in doing to us or anybody else.