Posted on 01/07/2002 9:07:38 AM PST by Starmaker
Conventional wisdom holds that come this November the Democrats will have strengthened their razor thin majority in the U. S. Senate. Their case looks good. The Republicans have to defend many more seats than the Democrats. Moreover, three Republicans are retiring at the end of this term and at least two of the three incumbents would probably be stronger than the GOP candidates seeking to be their replacements. And still another incumbent is running for governor without a leading candidate to take his place. And the GOP has two incumbents who may be beyond repair.
Republicans will have to have every break to just stay even, so the pundits predict that the Democrats will gain at least a couple of seats. They may be right, but they will first have to contend with Senator Bill Frist, the Chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. He has done an unusually good job of recruiting candidates for the Senate this time. It may be that Democrats have the election sewed up, but they are going to have to fight in some unusual places where they did not expect to have real battles on their hands.
First, there is Iowa. Granted that Rep. Greg Ganske, the Republican, can at times be a quirky independent. But he will give Senator Tom Harkin a real run for the seat that the Democrat has held since 1984. Ganske hails from Des Moines and polls show him running even in Des Moines with Harkin. That is troubling for Harkin, because he always built up a big margin in Des Moines to offset Republican votes elsewhere in Iowa. Harkin was almost defeated in 1996, but Bill Clinton flew into the state on the last weekend before the election and pushed Harkin as a national treasure who was badly needed in the U.S. Senate. Harkin was the winner in a squeaker. Harkin is extraordinarily clever and resourceful when it comes to elections and he certainly is still the favorite, but he will have to figure out a new strategy this time because Ganske is taking away his power base.
Then there is Minnesota. Senator Paul Wellstone is the most liberal member of the U.S. Senate. Minnesota is a liberal state without a doubt, but indications are that Wellstone may be too much for even that upper Midwestern Socialist enclave. The GOP candidate is Norm Coleman, who has just stepped down from his post as the mayor of Saint Paul. Coleman narrowly lost a three-way race for governor when Jesse Ventura was elected. Still he has maintained a good image in the state. Incumbents are very hard to defeat, but Wellstone is in some trouble. If Ventura will refrain from meddling in this race, Coleman will be competitive.
In Georgia, Max Cleland won a close race in 1996. The Republican candidate had twice been defeated in gubernatorial races. He had almost no grass roots organization. He spent lots of his own money and lost. This time, Rep. Saxby Chambliss will be the Republican standard bearer. Chambliss does know how to put together an organization. And while Cleland has made almost no mistakes since coming to Washington, he also does not have a strong image when contrasted with Sen. Zell Miller, Georgia's other Senator. Chambliss says he will run on a theme that Miller and Cleland cancel each other out on key votes. Miller says he is totally behind his old pal Cleland. However, Chambliss does have a list of many positions where the two contradict one another. Now we will see if the voters care.
Another race which ordinarily would be sewed up by the incumbent is in Missouri. John Ashcroft, the incumbent in 2000, was locked in a tight race with the outgoing Governor of Missouri, Mel Carnahan. Just as Ashcroft began to pull away from Carnahan, the governor's plane crashed, killing him, a son and a campaign aide. Mrs. Carnahan, after weeks of silence during which Ashcroft could not campaign, let it be known that she was available to be appointed to the Senate. The voters chose a dead man over Ashcroft. There was a very real question whether the votes for the dead governor were valid. Many urged Ashcroft to contest the election. But Ashcroft was gracious and announced that he would not contest the election. That paved the way for the Widow Carnahan to be appointed to the Senate. She did not return Ashcroft's graciousness. When he was selected as Attorney General, she voted against his confirmation. That left a bad taste in the mouths of many swing voters in Missouri. Meanwhile Rep. Jim Talent was nearly elected governor. Indeed, some Missouri officials say the race was stolen from Talent. He has kept right on going since his narrow defeat and will go head to head with Mrs. Carnahan. The race is likely to be very close.
In Louisiana, Mary Landrieu won the race for Senator in 1996 with stolen votes over Woody Jenkins. Since coming to the Senate she has not established a strong image. Rep. John Cooksey says he has a plan to defeat Mrs. Landrieu. Since few are angry with her, it may be difficult to defeat this incumbent. Cooksey insists that it can be done. Sen. Frist jokingly says that either Rep. Ganske or Rep. Cooksey have to win their Senate seats. Both are doctors, as is Frist, who has tended to dozens of medical problems with Senators and tourists since coming to Washington. He says he can use a little medical help.
And then there is South Dakota. The president himself was involved, at the urging of Frist, to recruit Rep. John Thune to run against Sen. Tim Johnson. Thune had planned to run for governor. Thune is very popular in South Dakota whereas Johnson has hidden in the shadow of Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle. This may well be the race which determines the outcome in the Senate. Right now it is truly a head to head contest between Bush and Daschle. Bush has said he will help with fundraising. He will have to. Daschle has warned business people in the state that if they contribute any money to Thune, any interest they have in legislation won't see the light of day. Money for Thune has dried up. But the relatively low cost of purchasing media in South Dakota means mounting an effective challenge, which does not require the bank book of Michael Bloomberg. If Thune can raise enough money to be competitive financially this fall when the dollars count most, then his more vibrant style coupled with a few breaks may be enough to carry him over the finish line first.
Now it may well be that there will be a trend in the country by November 2002. If we are still in a recession, the Democrats will not only pick up Senate seats, they will control the House as well. After all, FDR nearly lost control of Congress in the 1942 elections, despite his mile high approval ratings following Pearl Harbor. So the fact that President Bush has approval ratings which are off the charts and could even remain relatively high through the fall elections means very little when it comes to electing Congress.
If, on the other hand, there is no trend then each race will be determined on its own merits. In that case the work Sen. Frist has done (and continues to do as he still needs a credible candidate in Montana and one or two other states where the incumbent might prove to be vulnerable) will pay off. If it does, who controls the Senate may well depend on the outcome of the Thune-Johnson race.
As goes South Dakota, so goes the nation.
Who knew?
I'd like to take this opportunity to mention carpet-bagging, gun-banning liberal Libby Dole.
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