Posted on 12/31/2001 4:17:02 PM PST by Orion78
In an earlier Memorandum to the CIA this analyst explained the common Sino-Soviet long range strategy of convergence with the West and the intended exploitation for the purposes of this strategy of the new openings arising from the 'reformed' political structure of the former USSR and the emergence of the alleged 'democrats', 'non-Communists' and 'independents' who are running it.(1)
The present assessment shows how, because of Western ignorance of and confusion about the strategy underlying 'Perestroika' and because of Western political and economic support for the so-called reform of the Soviet system, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) has been successfully installed and has begun to carry out concrete new geopolitical strategies within the framework of the long-standing overall Communist strategy of convergence. These strategies are still being guided and coordinated by the same Soviet strategists who have simply shifted away from the use of the old worn-out ideology and the familiar but obsolete patterns, to the exploitation of geopolitical factors and of the new potentialities of the 'reformed' Communist system. The common feature of these geopolitical strategies is the manipulation and use of the 'democrat' and 'independent' images which the change in form from the USSR to the CIS and it's individual members has provided so abundantly and the nature of which the West has, so far, failed to comprehend.(2)
The following upgraded strategies may be distinguished:
The first strategy involves the CIS and Russia in particular with dealing directly with longstanding American allies like Germany and Japan and causing their allegiance to be shifted away from the United States towards economic and political alliance with the CIS and especially with Russia.To this end Russia is exploiting American economic rivalry with Germany and Japan, together with the large-scale involvement of Germany in economic cooperation with Russia and the offer to them of lucrative market and investment opportunities in Russia. China can expected to join in this campaign to steal away old American allies by concentration on offering the Japanese various investment opportunities in China.(3)
The second upgraded strategy involves the use of the new 'independent' Muslim states in the CIS to establish and develop economic and political cooperation with the fundamentalists in Iran and elsewhere in the Muslim world. According to this assessment the much-advertised feud between the Armenians and the Azerbaijanis of Turkish descent in Nagorno-Karabakh may be a tactical ploy to involve Turkey, Iran and other Muslim countries in support of eventual alliance with Azerbaijan and other Central Asian Muslim states in the CIS. This strategy takes into account the growing power of the fundamentalists and the possibility of gaining control over substantial oil reserves.(4)
A primary objective of the strategy here is to achieve a partnership with the fundamentalists in Iran and Algeria and to replace the present American-oriented rulers of Saudi Arabia with fundamentalists. The opening in Saudi Arabia of a Russian Embassy and the probable opening of Embassies by Muslim states of the CIS should be seen, not only as an attempt to extract a few extra Saudi billions, but as part of an offensive to bring about a political reorientation in that country.(5)
Chinese Muslims can also be expected to play an active role in promoting alliances with the fundamentalists. The supply of missiles to Iran by the Chinese should be looked at in the context of this strategy.(6)
The third strategy is to facilitate a shift of the emerging regime in South Africa from the Western sphere of influence towards close economic and political cooperation and alliances with the CIS using for this purpose old friendships with leaders of the African National Congress and the South African Communist party with which it is effectively merged. One can expect that the offensive to facilitate such a partnership will become more active and more visible than ever, after the 'reforms' in the CIS and South Africa have stabilized.(7)
The fourth strategy is that of using and manipulating the changes in the former Soviet Union to bring about, in the longer run, radical changes in relations between the United States and Israel, in the political power structure in Israel itself, in Israel's position in the Middle East and in world opinion towards Israel.
The fact new leaders in Russia have promised the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Germany, the Baltic countries and Poland, and that they are insisting on a seven-year term for the strategic arms reduction treaty being negotiated with the United States, are indications that the Russian strategists have their own timetable. This is not based on what is going to occur in the CIS according to the optimistic expectations of Western observers, but rather upon the Soviet estimate of the time needed for the strategies described above to take effect. The possibility that the United States will lose valuable allies during this period is not something new. There is nothing permanent in the international relations. The Americans experienced this not so long ago when the suddenly lost Iran.
The vulnerability of the United States arises from the fact that its basic premises, assumptions and perceptions about the present and future of Russia and the CIS are wrong. Where the United States sees golden opportunities, it is in reality facing traps set for it by the Soviet long-range strategists. The impact on the United States of the successful execution of these strategies would be devastating.
The loss of old allies and the loss of oil reserves, following the equally catastrophic loss of South Africa, would result in the re-emergence of the CIS and China as stronger adversaries, and in an 'irreversible' chance in the balance of world power in their favour. The United States would be weakened and divided and the pressure for the impetus towards convergence of the CIS and China with the United States on Sino-Russian terms would be intensified.(8)
The Urgent Need to Reconsider Prevailing Assumptions About Russia and China
Regards!
The above instructive parody written by some $&*#, fully Americanized, and, assimilated, descendant of Slavic immigrants. Folks, take it from me, don't trust the USSR2 / Rus. Don't do it....
Perestroika was defined thusly by the Party Plenum of Jan 1987:"Perestroika is the decisive defeat of the processes of stagnation, the destruction of the braking mechanism, the creation of a reliable and effective mechanism for increasing the pace of the social-economic development of society. The main idea of our strategy is to unite the achievements of the scientific-technical revolution with a planned economy and to bring into action the entire potential of socialism.
"Perestroika is the buttress for the vital creativity of the masses; it is the all-sided development of democracy and socialist self-direction, the encouragement of initiative and independence, the strengthening of discipline and order, the widening of glasnost, criticism and self-criticism in all spheres of social life; it is a greatly heightened respect for the value and worth of the individual.
"Perestroika is the steady elevation of the role of intensive factors in the development of the Soviet economy, the reestablishment and development of the Leninist principles of democratic centralism in the direction of the national economy, universal introduction of economic methods of management, rejection of administration by command, assuring the transfer of all levels of the economy to the principles of complete financial self- sufficiency and new forms of the organization of labor and production, the utmost support for innovation and socialist enterprise.
"Perestroika is a decisive turn to science, a businesslike partnership of practice with science in order to achieve optimal final results, the ability to place any initiative on a firm scientific basis, the readiness and fervent desire of scientists to actively support the course of the Party for renewing society; at the same time, it is concern about the development of science, the growth of its cadres, and its active participation in the process of reform.
"Perestroika is a priority on the development of the social sphere, a more complete satisfaction of the demands of the Soviet people for good working conditions, everyday life, rest, education, and medical services; it is a constant concern for the spiritual wealth and culture of every individual and of society in general; it is the ability to combine the solution of wide-ranging, cardinal problems of society with the solution of on-going questions of concern to people.
"Perestroika is the energetic liberation of society from the distortions of socialist morality, the consistent realization of the principles of social justice; it is the unity of word and deed, of rights and responsibilities; it is the elevation of honest, high-quality labor, and overcoming the equalizing tendencies in terms of pay and consumer items.
"The final goal of perestroika, it seems is clear: a profound renewal of all aspects of the nation's life, imparting to socialism the most contemporary forms of social organizations, and the most complete disclosure of the humanitarian character of our society in all its decisive aspects--economic, social-political, and moral."
"In the art of war there are no fixed rules. These can only be worked out according to circumstances"Li Ch'uan, commentator of the T'ang period [618-905] in China, on 'The Art of War' by Sun Tzu
Azerbaijan President visits Turkey to discuss oil pipelines (10/31/99)
Turkey Has Challenged Russia (1/21/00)
Turkey increasingly asserts its role in Central Asia (11/11/00)
Turkey - Strategic Partner - (Georgia) (2/2/01)
Turkey to drill for oil in Iraq (12/12/01)
Turkey Plays Big Brother to Azerbaijan in Opening Skirmishes Over Control of Caspian Resources (12/19/01)
Russia, Turkey sign military cooperation accord (1/16/02)
This Sino-Soviet strategy is based on the experience of Iran where the Islamic fundamentalists came to power. As an anti-American and anti-Western movement, Islamic fundamentalism offers obvious possibilities for undermining the pro-western regimes in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. The Chinese Communists are openly supporting and supplying the Iranian Government.
Saudi Arabia funds `behind Taleban' (9/3/98)
China providing advanced aid in long-range missiles to Iran, Syria (6/6/00)
Iran wants end to Western edge (6/23/00)
Saudi Arabia, Iran to sign security pact (2/2/01)
China Continues Aid to Pakistan, Iran Nuclear Development -- Tenet (2/9/01)
US to confront Saudi Arabia on financing terrorism (12/2/01)
Karrubi (Iran) in Riyadh to Discuss Future of Islamic States (12/24/01)
Terrorism Alert: Iran-Sudan economic ties to expand (1/7/02)
Official (Iran) calls for setting up Islamic fund for Palestinians (1/10/02)
Iran Arming Lebanese Terrorists With Anti-Aircraft Missiles (1/12/02)
Iran using PA as proxy against Israel - senior official (1/12/02)
Under concealed Russian guidance, the Muslims of the former USSR, especially the Azers, will seek to cooperate and ally themselves with Muslims in Iran and the Arab states while Russia maintains is open policy of cooperation and partnership with the West. In this way China openly and Russia secretly will jointly attempt to swing the balance of power in their favour in the highly strategic, oil producing Arab/Iranian areas of the Middle East."
Russia says nuclear technology sales to Iran pose no threat (5/11/98)
Iran Pledges Continued Support to PLO Radical Groups and Hizballah (5/15/99)
Russia, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Ukraine (8/13/99)
Azerbaijan Reexamines Iranian Relations (1/22/01)
Iran ships long-range rockets to Hizbullah in Lebanon (2/28/00)
Russia Sends Arafat Backing for Palestinian State (11/30/00)
Russia Drops Pledge Not To Arm Iran (11/22/00)
Iran, China to promote cooperation on oil (1/3/01)
China's oil giant Sinopec to explore oil in Iran (1/13/01)
Iran, Russia Defy U.S. With Pact (3/12/01)
Iran, Russia Leaders Talk Arms, Oil (3/12/01)
Iran favours strong regional ties "Iran, India, China and Russia needed to strengthen their ties" (4/12/01)
Iran to buy cruise missiles from Russia (5/16/01)
Pakistan, Azerbaijan Strike Defense Partnership Deal (5/25/01)
Russia, N.Korea, China give Iran missile aid -CIA (9/8/01)
Russia and Iran Sign Arms Deal; Nuclear Reactors on the Way (10/3/01)
Iran, Russia stress proper exploitation of Caspian Sea resources (11/16/01)
Russia Ships Nuclear Reactor Body to Iran (11/16/01)
Iran, Uzbekistan to review anti-drug cooperation (12/22/01)
A primary objective of the strategy here is to achieve a partnership with the fundamentalists in Iran and Algeria and to replace the present American-oriented rulers of Saudi Arabia with fundamentalists. The opening in Saudi Arabia of a Russian Embassy and the probable opening of Embassies by Muslim states of the CIS should be seen, not only as an attempt to extract a few extra Saudi billions, but as part of an offensive to bring about a political reorientation in that country.
Chinese Muslims can also be expected to play an active role in promoting alliances with the fundamentalists. The supply of missiles to Iran by the Chinese should be looked at in the context of this strategy."
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