1. There is a 7-17 day incubation period, with no apparent symptoms and no contagiousness.
2. The first syptoms of smallpox mimic the flu, however the person is still not contagious at this point.
3. Smallpox first becomes contagious when lesions/pox appear, AFTER the flu-like symptoms have existed for a day or two.
4. However, those lesions/pox generally first appear in the throat, and not on the skin, and therefore may not be immediately detectable.
5. After they appear in the throat, they then appear on the body at the face and extremities, and at that point confirm that the person has smallpox.
From that data, it would seem that:
1. An infected person, once lesions occur in their throat, may not immediately see them, or may think they are something else such as strep, and may not take immediate steps to quarantine themselves.
2. Meaning that in the period, that any lesions are in their throat ONLY, there is a window of time where they may be spreading the disease and unaware of it, even though that window is probably only a day or two.
3. Meaning that the zero patient may infect others during that window, but as soon as doctors realized there was smallpox in the area, would be on alert to quarantine people as soon as they came down with flu-like sypmtoms, but before they had lesions in their throat. This may mean a local or regional outbreak, but it would burn out quickly.
4. Meaning that the smallpox threat is moderate, not terribly high or low.
Would that be a correct analysis?
I wish I had said that. A very concise wrap-up.
Thank you.
;-)
Which was my point the entire time.
Thank you for agreeing with me.
Tom B could have saved us all the trouble by agreeing to this simple fact from the beginning.