Here's the Cook analysis of the race and I agree with it:
From early on the race in New Jersey was a mismatch. Democrat Jim McGreevey already had the experience of a statewide campaign under his belt with his near-upset over Gov. Christie Whitman in 1997. He never stopped running and was long ago anointed by a unified state Democratic party anxious to regain the governor's mansion and delighted that McGreevey was back for a second try. In contrast, not only was it Republican Bret Schundler's first statewide foray, but his relationship with his state party's leadership couldn't have been different.A conservative championed by the pro-life, pro-gun wing of the party who had spent the seven long Whitman years on the outside looking in, his primary campaign rhetoric was as critical of the Republicans running the state government in Trenton as a Democrat's. Still, Schundler was stunned with attempts by the state party leadership to search for a candidate they believed was viable statewide, leading to the failed campaign of acting governor/state Senate president Donnie DiFrancesco, and the eventual candidacy of last year's Senate nominee, Bob Franks. The hard feelings among the moderates never healed and DiFrancesco more than once was loudly critical of Schundler during the general election campaign while Whitman waited until well into October to generate a feeble letter of endorsement.
Once past the primary, Schundler seemed never to regain his stride. Within days of winning the nomination he was immediately demonized by McGreevey surrogates who played up his conservative views on social issues with no GOP surrogates in sight to come to his aid. Said on veteran political observer here, "Bret was kept on the defensive. He never learned the lesson that when attacked, attack back." He and other insiders also point to Schundler's verbal gaffes and seeming series of back luck - branding McGreevey an "ayatollah" this summer, then, down 18 points in the polls at Labor Day, he went out of the country on a pre-arranged trip to Israel, got stuck overseas in the wake of September 11th, came back and insulted state emergency workers, and in his final debate with McGreevey nine days before the election managed to offend just about everybody when he dragged McGreevey's pregnant wife into the abortion debate and then alluded to his opponent's children being from his first marriage.
Long touted as a new styled Jack Kemp with innovative economic theories and a possible national future in the GOP, Schundler failed to sharpen a message for the general election contest and, in the words of one observer, "never learned to work in sound bites," instead speaking in paragraphs.
I'll give him another shot. He is still young, and he certainly is worth keeping an eye on still.