[HighWheeler]

Osama was probably killed in the saturation bombing in the initial strikes. The statement Bush made on October 11 was very puzzling, considering that he is man of his word, and that only a month earlier he said the elimination of terrorists and their network would take years to complete. Yet he laid it all on the line with his offer.

I have an idea how this was all militarily executed in the first strike, and why it took almost a month to commence, and I may post it after a while.

[azhenfud]

Now that you mention it, isn't the bounty of 15mil up from 5mil?
I recall a story where a man's wife lost her cat which had been totally irritating to the husband. The husband agreed with his wife that a reward should be offered for the safe return of the cat. When the husband went to place the article in the "Lost & Found" and offered a 10 grand reward, the publisher said "Would you pay that much for someone to find that cat?" The husbands reply was "Nobody will EVER find that cat..."
Az

[Eternal_Bear]

I think he's still alive. He's had years and millions of dollars to plan for an "exit strategy".He's probably hiding in a deep cave just across the Pakistani border.

[LiberteeBell]

Great analysis. Bush spoke sometime near the end of October (don't remember the exact event) and he seemed unusually elated and that was followed by Rumsfeld's statement that we may never catch him. I remarked to my husband at that time that I thought something was up; that perhaps obl was dead.

[TopQuark]

This is the modus operandi of a conspiracy theory: If someone had a motive and means, he did it.

If only you put your clearly good mind and this much work into a worthy cause...

[Publius6961]

Noted and filed for future verification.
Unfortunately the fact depends on so many sequential suppositions that the result as of today is highly unlikely.

But I do throw in a heartfelt wish that it were true.

[Michael_Michaelangelo]

Well, As of today, 12/21, your theory still holds water. I am still convinced (well, about 90% positive) that he is toast. What a crazy World we are living in. THere is so much more left to come out into the open. Fregards, MM

[rs79bm]

if only it were this easy.........that said, you should run for president some day.

[HighWheeler]

When Bush proclaimed that the US would withdraw from the war if BinLaden was handed over for $25M, it implied that Bush knew Bin Laden had already been killed.

When the “American Taliban fighter, John Walker Lindh”, was captured in late 2001, it cemented the fact that infiltration of the Taliban would be possible by Americans, and that Bin Laden could be monitored closely, so that the huge strike in Afghanistan could wipe him out.

We saw a tape of Bin Laden a week after 9/11 talking about the WTC attacks.

However, notice that since then, we have never seen a video tape of Bin Laden that proves he has been alive anytime after the initial WTC attack and his follow up video.

The Islamofacists would love nothing better than to taunt the US with recent video images of Bin Laden proving that he’s alive.

But they can’t.

[NYC Republican]

Of course he’s been dead. He’s been gone since our initial strikes in Afghanistan