The margin of victory for Boozman was the same as for the Pubbie victor in 92, when two non-incumbants were running. Also, Clinton almost won that seat in 74, it was a close race.
Also in the Virigina race earlier this year the demo's put $2,000,000 into the race and used the social security issue and they still lost. The district in Virginia was a swing district and can't be considered leaning either way.
I agree. This is typical media-horserace-mentality stuff. Any polled lead must turn out to be the actual, or "expectations" weren't met and the reason MUST be due to one or two factors explainable in 30 seconds or under 100 words typewritten words.
Sorry, but Novak is media first, conservative third.