[John Jorsett]

There are close to 200 replies now, so perhaps someone else has noted this (I'm not going to read all 200 just to find out): smallpox becomes communicable only when the person is so ill that in almost all cases the person is already bedridden, too ill to walk. Secondary infections are virtualy always to caregivers like hospital personnel or family members. Also, the vaccine can be given even after symptoms begin to manifest themselves. Authorities will act quickly to isolate and treat those with symptoms, and any outbreak will not be widespread. You can see a great model for this in how outbreaks of Ebola are handled. They're quickly isolated and the transferrence does not go far. And Ebola isn't treatable and there is no vaccine, which is not the case for smallpox. Holing up in one's house is not a rational response, in my opinon. In an outbreak, you'll be offered vaccine, and you'd be better off taking it and then going about your business.

[ChemistCat]

"Authorities will act quickly to isolate and treat those with symptoms, and any outbreak will not be widespread. You can see a great model for this in how outbreaks of Ebola are handled. They're quickly isolated and the transferrence does not go far. "

This works FINE for natural outbreaks of disease in not-so-mobile societies. A society like ours with an extremely mobile population has never before been hit with a DELIBERATE and INFECTIOUS bioagent. Anthrax and Ebola simply are not comparable models, anthrax because while it was deliberately introduced into our society it is not contagious, and ebola because it has never been introduced into a culture with interstates and dozens of busy airports.

You are more optimistic than I am both about how a bioattack may be launched and how our government can distribute smallpox vaccine. They have a lot of agents here. Anthrax, in my opinion, has never been a serious attack--it was just a test of American resolve ("will they nuke us if we use bioagents? maybe not if we do it incrementally.")