[HENRYADAMS]

I have grave doubts that the 30% death estimates are accurate. People overlook that many early smallpox deaths were caused by secondary infections e.g. staph and pneumonia. These can be controlled today. Absent introducing a "Tweeked Bug" I would hazard an estimate of about 5% death. Just a lot of sick folks left with scars.

[RBurke]

"I have grave doubts that the 30% death estimates are accurate. People overlook that many early smallpox deaths were caused by secondary infections e.g. staph and pneumonia. These can be controlled today. Absent introducing a "Tweeked Bug" I would hazard an estimate of about 5% death. Just a lot of sick folks left with scars"

You need to read the CDCs and John Hopkins study on smallpox. The 30% mortality figures are their figures and recently established. Yes some of the deaths would be caused by secondary infections--which "should" respond to antibiotics. The trouble with that is;

1)During any outbreak of smallpox there will not be enough antibiotics to go around for the population.

2) Delivery of medicines (including antibiotics)will be severely hampered by interstate commerce coming to a halt.

3) Healthcare systems will be overwhelmed quickly.

This is not my opinion but the facts from the John Hopkins study in coordination with the US govt.

[RANGERAIRBORNE]

" I would hazard an estimate of about 5% death. Just a lot of sick folks left with scars.

Are you an Epidemiologist? Neither am I, so our estimates are equally worthless. However, I am really fascinated by people on FR who blithely throw around figures like "about 5%" deaths, as though that were a GOOD THING!

Now, if the attack rate were 100%, a case fatality rate of "about 5%" would mean "about" fifteen MILLION dead Americans. Of course, no disease has an attack rate of 100%, so let's bring that down to a more realistic 10% for the entire country (much higher in some cities, lower in some rural areas). That still gives something like 1.5 MILLION deaths.