Posted on 09/29/2001 1:10:15 PM PDT by majordivit
Not for commercial use. Solely to be used for the educational purposes of research and open discussion.
Unocal is desperately trying to broker an agreement between warring factions to support its $2.5 billion plan to build a pipeline across Afghanistan
The giant US oil and gas company Unocal is desperately trying to broker an agreement between warring factions to support its $2.5 bil plan to build a pipeline across Afghanistan.
Unocal has been trying to win the fealty of all sides in Afghanistan by giving unconventional gifts to Afghanistan's warring factions--gifts which are arriving at a crucial time for both Unocal and the war-torn nation. Afghanistan is at the center of a seismic shift in regional politics that could sharply rearrange alliances in Central Asia and establish economic dependence for countries in the region. To the north lies the Daultabad natural gas field, which is estimated to hold 20+ tril cubic feet of gas, the third largest reserve of gas in the world. The country also holds some 47 bil barrels of crude oil, about half that of Kuwait, while yet further to the north, the vast fields of Uzbekistan, Kazakhastan and Azerbaijan are legends in the petroleum industry. With its partner Delta Oil, Unocal plans to pipe natural gas from Turkmenistan nearly 1,000 miles through Afghanistan to Pakistan. The Delta-Unocal consortium also has plans for another pipeline to funnel as much as one million barrels of oil a day to warm-water ports, where petroleum could then be shipped to the oil-hungry West. But the long civil war in Afghanistan has made the future of the project anything but certain. Despite these developments, Unocal and Delta signed an agreement in 7/97 with Turkmenistan and Pakistan that the project would begin in 1998, despite earlier statements that investors would not support the project until peace came to Afghanistan and it had a representative government. Unocal's confidence also is belied by the fact that the Taliban have yet to commit their support for Unocal's project. BOSTON, Aug. 17 (IPS) -- You can't keep a good Yankee trader down. While rockets rain down in towns across Afghanistan, the giant U.S. oil and gas company Unocal is desperately trying to broker an agreement between warring factions to support its $2.5 billion plan to build a pipeline across the Central Asian nation. Latest reports from Afghanistan indicate fighting has intensified north of the Capital Kabul between Taliban militia units and Northern Alliance coalition forces, but Unocal is attempting to soothe financiers' fears that the controversial project is an impossible dream. Unocal has been trying to win the fealty of all sides in Afghanistan with an arsenal of unconventional gifts ranging from medical supplies to fax machines, generators and frisbees. Some gifts, however, have been made exclusively to the Taliban -- an organization that has been the focus of international condemnation for its treatment of women and harsh punishments meted out to non-conformists. Unocal spokesman Terry Convington confirmed that in order to facilitate talks with the Taliban, a delegation from Unocal and its Saudi partner Delta Oil presented Taliban leaders with a fax machine and a generator during a visit to Southern Afghanistan. The company has not provided similar in-kind donations to factions in the northern stronghold. "It's not unusual for our company to provide humanitarian assistance in any country where we work," says Covington. While company officials generally leave "things that people could use," Unocal-emblazoned souvenirs, including frisbees, hats and T-shirts, are also common gifts to children -- "that's the way we do business." The unusual gifts to Afghanistan's warring factions are arriving at a crucial time for both Unocal and the war-torn nation. Afghanistan is squarely at the center of a seismic shift in regional politics that could sharply rearrange alliances in Central Asia and establish economic dependence for countries in the region. Below Turkmenistan to the north lies the Daultabad natural gas field, which is estimated to hold over 20 trillion cubic feet of gas, the third largest reserve of gas in the world. The country also holds some 47 billion barrels of crude oil, about half that of Kuwait, while yet further to the north, the vast fields of Uzbekistan, Kazakhastan and Azerbaijan are legends in the petroleum industry. With its partner Delta Oil, Unocal plans to pipe natural gas from Turkmenistan nearly 1,000 miles through Afghanistan to Pakistan. The Delta-Unocal consortium also has plans for another pipeline to funnel as much as one million barrels of oil a day to warm-water ports, where petroleum could then be shipped to the oil-hungry West. |
But the long civil war in Afghanistan has made the future of the project anything but certain. When the government of President Burhanuddin Rabbani in Kabul fell to Taliban forces last fall, it appeared that a Taliban victory was imminent after a two-and-a-half year campaign which saw the Taliban seize about two-thirds of Afghanistan. The Taliban -- Sunni Muslims whose followers are largely from the Durrani branch of the Pushtun tribe -- have drawn international condemnation for the groups' harsh treatment of women, other ethnic minorities, and non-conformists to their strict codes of dress and conduct. Just last month, Amnesty International reported that the Taliban have detained and tortured some 2,000 Tajik and Hazara minorites in the notorious Pul-e Charkhi prison. The Taliban practice a "gender apartheid," according to reports by other Human Rights watchdogs. Women are banned from schools and other public institutions. For infractions such as wearing nail polish, women are punished with amputations or public beatings. Indiscriminate killings, stonings, beatings and summary executions of men and women alike are commonplace in Taliban-held territories, according to reports. Fighting between the Taliban and the Northern Alliance -- which has links with Iran and Russia -- erupted again last month when forces lead by Ahmed Shah Masood and General Abdul Malik launched attacks from their Hindu Kush stronghold and seized strategic mountain passes north of Kabul. The Taliban have lost between 2,000 and 3,000 seasoned fighters, and Masood boasts that his forces could take Kabul at any time. Despite these developments, Unocal and Delta signed an agreement in July with Turkmenistan and Pakistan that the project would begin in 1998, despite earlier statements that investors would not support the project until peace came to Afghanistan and it had a representative government. Unocal's confidence also is belied by the fact that the Taliban have yet to commit their support for either Unocal's project or that of Argentine competitor Bridas, which plans to build a parallel pipeline. Unocal says it maintains a position of "strict political neutrality" in the civil war, but Chris Taggart, executive vice president of Unocal Turkmenistan, was the subject of sharp criticism last October when he called Taliban military advances "a step forward." "Anything that brings stability and the establishment of a government is a great plus for the (pipeline) project," he said at the time. Officials in the Afghan embassy in Washington believe that Unocal continues to favor the Taliban over other factions, citing as an example the fact that company has opened an office in Kandahar, a southern Taliban stronghold. "They haven't opened an office in the turf of any of the other factions," said an Afghan embassy official. "Their links with the Taliban have been quite good. They claim to be in contact with all factions, but they've never come into this embassy ever to talk to anybody." While it is a "routine occurrence" for the company to give humanitarian assistance such as water, food and medical supplies to all fighting forces at the conclusion of talks, the fax machine and the generator to run it remained a sore point with non-Taliban Afghans. "(Unocal representatives) realized that they would have no way to communicate with the Taliban and left the equipment so that it could be used to continue communicating with the Taliban on an ongoing basis," said Unocal's Covington. "Was there a need to do so with the faction in the North? The answer is no." Covington stressed "It's not an issue of support for the pipeline. In order to get financing from multilateral lending institutions, you need a recognized government in place...we want to be in a position to start construction when Afghanistan allows these last few links to be concluded." As evidence of neutrality, the company cites a $900,000 contract with the University of Nebraska at Omaha to open two branches of the Center for Afghanistan Studies, which was formerly funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development. One branch of the Center will be in Taliban territory, the other in opposition territory. Both will train Afghans in skills necessary to build the pipeline. The U.S. government, which could be well served by oil-rich client states in the region, is also taking a wait-and-see attitude. While still recognizing the Rabbanni government, U.S. has not taken sides in the civil war. An official at the U.S. State Department's regional affairs desk, believes that Unocal is doing the same. "Unocal knows that the way to get the project accomplished is not to set up their own guys to take over the country," the State department official said. "What they need is for the Afghans to work out a government that will be responsive to all Afghans. Power may grow out of the barrel of a gun, but a gas pipeline cannot continue for decades just supported by force." |
Not for commercial use. Solely to be used for the educational purposes of research and open discussion.
NEW DELHI: Ashqabad, capital of Turkmenistan, which professes "neutrality" with regard to any conflict in the region, is the hub of these contacts, well placed diplomatic sources say. The most preferred venue, however, is Pakistan, where diplomats have been interacting with the Taliban. Last month, a senior official accompanying Chinese Foreign Minister Tang met Ambassador Haqqani who represents the Kabul regime. US ambassador to Pakistan, William B. Milaim, had a much-publicised meeting in with Mohammed Naim Khan, head of the Afghan commissionerate in Peshawar. The Frontier Post prominently carried a photograph, but gave no details. |
The French initiative is being credited to the interest shown by the country's il multinational corporations in Central Asian oil and gas reserves. Unocal, a US MNC that planned to pay a $ 2.5 billion gas pipeline from Daulatabad in Turkmenistan to Pakistan through Afghanistan, closed its operations last year. But this and many other MNCs are awaiting conducive times to resume work on this and other projects. |
September 28, 2001
LETTER TO THE EDITOR - UNOCAL CORP.: THE CENTGAS CONSORTIUM DID NOT SUPPORT ONE FACTION OVER ANOTHER IN AFGHANISTAN
Dear Editor,
My name is Teresa Covington and I work for Unocal Corporation, handling international corporate communications.
I am contacting you to provide some information and correct a statement made in the September 25th article entitled "Ahad Andican: Taliban, as a remote controlled movement, can be erased by Afghans themselves." The background for our company's previous participation in a consortium of companies that proposed the Central Asia Gas Pipeline Project (CentGas), which would have traversed Afghanistan, can be found on our web site (www.unocal.com). You will see that Unocal withdrew from that consortium in 1998.
This information is relevant in two respects. First, since our withdrawal, Unocal has had no contact with either faction in Afghanistan. Therefore, the statement that Unocal invited the Taliban to California last year is incorrect.
The CentGas consortium did not support one faction over another. Any informational meetings held were held with both factions, separately. Unocal hosted a visit by representatives of what is known as the "Northern Alliance" in Houston in 1996 and by representatives of the Taliban in Houston in 1997. The purpose of the meetings in Houston was to provide information on the pipeline proposal and to clearly indicate what was required for the project to move forward -- the establishment of an internationally recognized government in Afghanistan that represented all the people of Afghanistan.
As you will see from the information on our web site, Unocal subsequently withdrew from the consortium in 1998.
I am not sure of your policy regarding corrections but hope that this information here and on our web site is useful to you either way.
Thank You,
Teresa Covington
By Mamuka Tsereteli
06-07-01 Caspian energy resources will play an increasingly important role in the world energy supply over the next two decades. The United States, the world's largest energy consumer, Europe, China and India will compete for those resources. This competition could bring Russia closer to the West.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects world demand for petroleum to soar by 56 % until 2020, reaching 119.6 mm bpd. At least 10 % of the growth in world oil production is expected to come from the Caspian Basin. Based on the assumption of relatively stable oil prices, the EIA forecasts that Caspian oil production will reach 6 mm bpd by 2020.
Optimistic estimates are even higher. Meanwhile, US oil production is projected to decline at an annual rate of about 1 %, dropping to 5.1 mm bpd by 2020, increasing US dependence on imported oil from the current 57 % to 64 % of consumption, with an increased share of imports coming from the Persian Gulf States. As the US is taking steps to diversify its energy supplies, the recommendations of President Bush's national energy policy task force focus substantial attention on all Caspian projects, including the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the Shah-Deniz-Turkey gas pipeline and Kazakhstani oil development.
Asia will also need increased volumes of imported oil. By 2020, China alone will consume 10 % of the oil produced in the world (an increase from the current level of 6 %) with only 3 % of the world oil reserves.
Even conservative forecasts of Caspian oil production show a requirement for additional export capacity of Caspian oil by 2020. The Caspian oil export capacity is projected to reach 1.3 mm bpd by the end of 2001. That includes 600,000 bpd capacity of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline, as well as other existing pipelines and rail routes through Russia and the Caucasian energy corridor (Baku-Supsa pipeline and Baku-Batumi railroad system). The US in fact managed to accomplish its so-called multiple pipeline strategy by splitting oil flows from the Caspian between Russia and the Caucasian energy corridor. But even with the construction of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, with a projected capacity of 1,000,000 bpd, an additional export capacity of at least 2 mm bpd will eventually be needed to meet production plans in the region.
Although new strategic developments might determine the choice, but the export options for Caspian oil in 2020 remain the same: the old North to Russia, South to Iran, West to South Caucasus and Turkey, East to China, or Southeast to India.
Russia tries its best to keep the Russian system dominant. But limitations of its exporting infrastructure's capacity, including port outlets, cannot guarantee that it will be able to increase the export capacity needs of the Caspian in general, and of Kazakhstan in particular.
Even with the CPC and new Baltic pipelines in place and with the assumption that it will be able to prevent its pipeline infrastructure from deterioration, Russia still cannot match the additional Caspian needs. The Turkish Straits pose additional limits on the Russian option; although bypassing the Bosporus via the Balkans might solve this problem.
The Iranian route was always considered economically the most effective. The general perception is that US policy towards Iran is the major obstacles to this option; the highly congested condition of the Strait of Hormuz is often ignored. The Persian Gulf already exports about 16 mm bpd through this Strait, creating the world's by far largest oil chokepoint.
As a significant share of growth in world oil production will come from the Gulf States, the volumes exported through the Strait of Hormuz will increase even without additional oil from the Caspian. The increased growth of oil production will also increase traffic in the next most congested waterway in the world -- the Malacca Strait, currently with a flow of 9 mm bpd.
The Eastern Transportation Options are probably the most distant and challenging. With India and China becoming active importing countries, the eastward transportation of Caspian oil and gas may become commercially and politically viable. There are two possible routes: East from Kazakhstan to China, and southeast from Turkmenistan to South Asia. An oil pipeline from Kazakhstan to China is a very high priority for China, although there is little commercial support for this project so far. A pipeline system including oil as well as gas Southeast from Turkmenistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan, potentially reaching India, possibly even bypassing Afghanistan through Iran. Those options have even more political as well as technical challenges.
The Caucasian Energy Corridor, supported by Turkey, the US, and other Western countries will become an even more important option. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) link can carry additional Caspian volumes to the deep-water port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean and thus avoid major transportation chokepoints. The development of a bypassing pipeline through the Balkans, as well as completion of the Black Sea connection of the Druzhba pipeline network could substantially increase the potential of the Baku-Supsa link as well.
Competition over export options may bring Russia closer to the West. Russia wants to maintain influence in Central Asia, but major oil flowing directly from the Caspian to China would not be in Russia's strategic interest. The US can capitalize on this notion and strike a deal with Russia about the future transportation of oil from the Caspian. A multiple pipeline strategy could again be the best solution: part of the oil could be shipped through Russia, potentially using bypassing pipelines from the Black Sea to South European ports, and another part through the Caucasian energy corridor. Such an arrangement might induce Russia to pursue a more cooperative policy toward the countries of the South Caucasus, and could ease pressure on Georgia and Azerbaijan.
The development of closer ties with India might be a good incentive for the United States to support one of the south-eastern-oriented options. This will greatly depend, however, on whether a "Sino-Islamic alliance" evolves, and whether the US will manage to curtail its development. With China's substantial influence in Pakistan, Iraq and Syria, solidifying ties with Iran would create an entire and uninterrupted allied land-space from Syria on the Mediterranean to China on the Pacific. If this geopolitical alignment becomes a reality, the US, India, and potentially Russia may work hard to prevent it.
The author Mamuka Tsereteli is the executive director of the US-Georgian Business Council.
I already did an FR search on the title and the author and came up empty, but someone may want to double-check, just in case. I find it hard to believe this one was missed. Here's an excerpt:
Evidence of the plot surfaced when Ramzi Yousef—one of three men convicted subsequently for the 1993 WTC bombing and sentenced to 240 years in prison—hastily fled a burning Manila apartment (and the country) just 200 yards from the Vatican Embassy. Cops found Manila street maps and clothing remarkably similar to that of Pope John Paul's entourage—the pontiff was due for a visit a week from the discovery—suggesting a planned attempt on his life. They also discovered bomb materials and a laptop whose disks revealed plans for Project Bojinka—which means "loud explosion" in Arabic.Great thread, majordivit.Speaking on condition of anonymity, a computer expert who regularly assists the National Bureau of Investigation (the Philippine FBI counterpart) and the Philippine National Police in their investigations of computer-related crimes said he downloaded the files, revealing the terrorists' diabolical project. One plan called for the hijacking of U.S.-bound commercial airliners from various Asian capitals and then, according to him, crashing them into "key structures in the United States: The World Trade Center, the White House, the Pentagon, the Transamerican Tower, and the Sears Tower were among the prominent structures that had been identified in the plans that we had decoded." The expert pointed out that in fact a dry run had been conducted in 1994, on a Tokyo-bound Philippine Airlines flight, when a small bomb under a passenger seat went off, killing a Japanese tourist.
More on Unocal and pipeline schemes in Afghanistan here:Afghanistan, EIA Country Analysis Brief [updated today!]. Afghanistan is also rich in natural gas and coal resources. The main obstacle to exploitation of these resources for the last few years has been the Taliban.
The entire thrust of this article, even the title "intelligence failure," presupposes that the problem is ineptness or goof-ups. Any government agency would prefer to be thought of as inept, rather than criminal, but the facts strongly suggest that this was not a matter of incompetence.
First of all, it was not the case that all of these hijackers simply got visas, were trained at civilian US flight schools and managed to slip through without a CIA background check. We know that at least 5 of the hijackers DID have a CIA background check. Why? Because these 5 were trained as pilots on a US military base. [Alleged Hijackers May Have Trained at U.S. Bases ] No one can even enter a US military base and wander around unsupervised, and certainly no one can possibly get training as a pilot on a military base without a complete background check.
It is also noteworthy to check into the circumstances surrounding those who were convicted of bombing the WTC in 1993. THE CIA AND THE SHEIK [Omar Abdel Rahman]:
"'Why aren't we going after the sheikh [Abdel Rahman]?' demanded the undercover man.
'It's hands-off,' answered the agent.
'Why?' asked the operative.
'It was no accident that the sheikh got a visa and that he's still in the country,' replied the agent, visibly upset. 'He's here under the banner of national security, the State Department, the NSA [National Security Agency], and the CIA.
The agent pointed out that the sheikh had been granted a tourist visa, and later a green card, despite the fact that he was on a State Department terrorist watch-list that should have barred him from the country. He's an untouchable, concluded the agent."
Now the question is: who authorized the Sept. 11 WTC & Pentagon hijackers to train on US military bases and who intervened to stop the ones with criminal records from being denied access to a US military base and deported? These are the questions that we should be asking, not why there was an "intelligence failure."
It is not unusual for foreign nationals to train at U.S. military facilities. A former Navy pilot told NEWSWEEK that during his years on the base, "we always, always, always trained other countries’ pilots. When I was there two decades ago, it was Iranians. The shah was in power. Whoever the country du jour is, that’s whose pilots we train."
In this case that includes foreign terrorists. I guess this is just another example of how we nutured our relationship with the Islamic terror groups. They helped us in Kosovo...and were to help provide a bulwark against Iran, China and Russia.. some policy...7,000 Dead Americans..
I say we are at war with Islam. Nobody will say it because of business reasons. We want to continue to make huge profits in business dealings with the muslim countries. I just hope that our survival isn't compromized because of that.
Islam is the successor to communism.. Russia is fighting them in Chechynia.
When word of the massacre at the Twin Towers in New York City on September 11 got back to the Phillipines...word has it that the authorities said "Project Bojinka"!!
Amd the CIA knew about it too!!
Similar Plot First Uncovered in the Phillipines, Says Police Chief
Thanks for calling this to my attention. I definitely want to follow-up on the Prince Turki al-Faysal matter! According to the BBC Monitoring Middle East - Date: 09/04/2001 "Text of report by London-based newspaper Al-Sharq al-Awsat on 1 September Jedda - Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Fahd Bin-Abd-al- Aziz has issued a royal decree appointing Prince Nawwaf Bin-Abd-al- Aziz as head of the Saudi intelligence service with the rank of minister and relieving Prince Turki al-Faysal of the post at his own request"
Trying to get info on the Royal House of Saud is sometimes like pulling teeth, since, like the royal family of Kuwait, they spend millions of dollars on Washington PR firms to whitewash their image. Various members of the Saudi royal family also own large shares of US high tech & other firms.
No doubt that Prince Turki resigned under pressure, related to his relationship with Bin Laden, which began during the anti-Russian Afghan insurgency of the 1980's. According to Ahmed Rashid: "Among these thousands of foreign recruits was a young Saudi student, Osama Bin Laden, the son of a Yemeni construction magnate, Mohammed Bin Laden, who was a close friend of the late King Faisal and whose company had become fabulously wealthy on the contracts to renovate and expand the Holy Mosques of Mecca and Medina. The ISI had long wanted Prince Turki Bin Faisal, the head of Istakhbarat, the Saudi Intelligence Service, to provide a Royal Prince to lead the Saudi contingent in order to show Muslims the commitment of the Royal Family to the jihad. Only poorer Saudis, students, taxi drivers and Bedouin tribesmen had so far arrived to fight. But no pampered Saudi prince was ready to rough it out in the Afghan mountains. Bin Laden, although not a royal, was close enough to the royals and certainly wealthy enough to lead the Saudi contingent. Bin Laden, Prince Turki and General Gut were to become firm friends and allies in a common cause."
As for letting extremists in: if the man could either have been in Iran or here, there are many advantages to having him here; you can keep an eye on him, know that other troublemakes won't be as close, and perhaps even show him that democracy does work.
This is the rationale offered by supporters of this policy, and one that you often will hear from CIA spokesmen. I would say that if somebody has a history of terrorism, particularly if he has threatened to bomb targets within the United States, the smart thing to do is to try to keep him out of the country, not bring him in. We are talking about those who have been programmed or "brainwashed" to convert, and not be converted. IMHO it is playing with fire to bring them into this country and use them as assets or to do business with them.
In this case that includes foreign terrorists. I guess this is just another example of how we nutured our relationship with the Islamic terror groups. They helped us in Kosovo...and were to help provide a bulwark against Iran, China and Russia.. some policy...7,000 Dead Americans..
I agree. When terrorism hits close to home, then the notion of using terrorists as tools to gain strategic advantages against another country, doesn't seem like such a bright idea.
To quote from your link: "A terrorist plot similar to this week's attack in New York and Washington was first uncovered in Manila in 1995, Philippine police said today.
"The statement came amid a warning by the senate's vice chair for national defence that Saudi dissident Osama bin Laden, the prime suspect in Tuesday's attacks in the US, could try to slip into the southern Philippines where he maintains contacts with Muslim separatist rebels.
"Chief Superintendent Avelino Razon said a plot called 'Project Bojinka' was uncovered by Philippine police in 1995 after arresting terrorist Abdul Hakim Murad in a Manila apartment where he was plotting to assassinate visiting Pope John Paul II.
"Murad 'is part of a terrorist cell established by Ramzi Yousef under the direction of Osama bin Laden,' Razon said. Both Murad and Yousef were then wanted by US authorities for the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center.
"'In the course of the investigation, we found out through a laptop computer confiscated from Murad that they were also going to implement a terrorist plot called Project Bojinka,' Razon, formerly Manila's police chief, said.
"The plot called for the hijacking of US commercial airliners, bombing them or crashing them into several targets including the Central Intelligence Agency."
I remember reading about this back in 1995, and I was outraged that this story was generally relegated to three inch articles on the back pages of major newspapers, at least this was the case here in California. But when you consider that these terrorists were doing jobs for the CIA, it is not surprising that this did not get a lot of media coverage.
Brainwashed terrorists don't belong here. Disaffected citizens of our satrapies definitely do. Otherwise we risk having our political system totally gum up.
With all due respect this isn't the case. All those involved in this savagery on 9-11 must be put to the sword. But to pretend that Islam is, in and of itself, a savage religion, and that the resentment f the west arises ex nihilo is not intellectually rigorous, and will only cause substantially more problems.
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