Posted on 09/12/2026 9:49:14 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
My, what a difference a few days makes.
On Wednesday, it looked like a surprise offensive by Yemeni government forces had knocked Iran's proxies, the Houthis, back on their heels. In just a day of hard fighting, the Houthis had been routed from several strongholds and Yemeni Deputy Defense Minister Samir al-Sabri declared that “the decision has been made to retake Sanaa.”
🇾🇪⚡- In the past hour, Presidential Leadership Council forces have launched a major offensive in the al-Bayda' Governorate, southern Yemen.
The fighting is no longer confined to a few directions, Yemen is once again engaged in a full-scale civil war, with clashes ongoing across almost all fronts
https://t.co/JVg25EQdIK pic.twitter.com/z5jQDaQJWY— Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts (@officialrnintel) September 7, 2026
This looked like another case of Iran throwing one of its proxy armies to the wolves in an attempt to save its own hide; see Iran Burns Another Proxy: Houthis Nearing Panic After Tehran-Ordered Offensive Fails – RedState.
By Thursday, the story had changed. Not only had the Houthis rallied and stopped the government advances, but they were also pushing their way down the Red Sea coastline toward the Bab al-Mendeb Strait, a maritime chokepoint more critical than the Strait of Hormuz because it controls access to the Suez Canal; see New: Iran-Backed Houthis Seize Vital Yemeni Port - Possibly a New Threat to Shipping – RedState.
A Houthi fighter films a victory declaration after the group's advance to the Bab el-Mandeb shoreline in southwestern Yemen, giving thanks for what he calls a "victory and conquest." The footage, first circulated on Friday, comes as Houthi forces push toward the strait — one of… pic.twitter.com/kwwObQCd2N— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) September 12, 2026
Houthi gains are the blue area.
Last year: pic.twitter.com/ouBRsLvqm6— Normal adam (@juden5099) September 12, 2026
Let's take a look at what all of this may and may not mean.
Finger-pointing has started
CNN has a decent roundup of reactions to events. It isn't just some purple-haired, nose-ringed harpy screeching "OrangeManBad," so you could be forgiven for doubting it was produced by that outlet. It is aptly titled: ‘"A f***-up of epic proportions’: Blame game begins after Houthis’ lightning advance down Red Sea coast."
Here are the high points:
Scoop: Saudi Crown Prince MBS called President Trump twice Thursday, urging him to launch strikes against the Houthis as the Iran-backed group closed in on a vital Red Sea chokepoint. Trump declined for now, U.S. officials said. My story on @axios
@axios https://t.co/oghPv4i9wN— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) September 11, 2026
What went wrong?
In simple terms, Yemen's reach exceeded its grasp by quite a margin. The Houthis have a single chain of command and a belief system that unifies them. They had professional IRGC advisers available to help unscrew the mess that was developing on Wednesday. The Yemeni government forces are fragmented. There is a Yemeni Army, but it is a partner in a coalition, and most of its partners are advised and paid by the UAE.
As the UAE has largely extracted itself from this war, the quality and enthusiasm of these forces are anyone's guess.
Whatever cooperation existed between those components is likely over.
"UAE-backed mercenary forces filming and mocking the Saudi-backed garrison for their cowardice." https://t.co/4G6tHQWmmO pic.twitter.com/daGICLBQxD— The Most Punished Kebab 🇹🇷 (@TheLastKebab) September 10, 2026
While the government forces running out of steam and collapsing was never outside the realm of possibilities probably the biggest mystery is why Saudi Arabia stood by and let its client state get curb-stomped, though that does seem to be the Middle Eastern way of war.
Strange things are happening in Yemen
That BOTH Saudi Arabia and the US are standing by as the Houthis lock down the coast controlling the Red Sea's maritime traffic makes no sense
Many possible explanations but none of them explain why it's geopolitically beneficial to do so.The big question hanging over this entire new chapter of the Yemen war is a very simple one:
Where is the Saudi Air Force?
Without Saudi air cover, Yemeni government forces that have depended heavily on Riyadh’s backing face an enormous problem. They are confronting the Houthis
https://t.co/msMsJEpMGn— Gummi (@gummibear737) September 11, 2026
Strange things are happening in Yemen
That BOTH Saudi Arabia and the US are standing by as the Houthis lock down the coast controlling the Red Sea's maritime traffic makes no sense
Many possible explanations but none of them explain why it's geopolitically beneficial to do so
Saudi oil at risk
I've posted before on the massive shift of oil from the Persian Gulf to safer routes because of Iran's aggressiveness; see Tehran’s Hormuz Blockade Looks Like History’s Dumbest Trade Own-Goal – RedState. One of the key parts of this move is Saudi oil moving by pipeline to the Saudi Red Sea port of Yanbu.
That is now in jeopardy as the Houthis are in a better position to attack Saudi shipping than they were a few days ago. Friday, the Saudi pipeline was hit by a drone attack which heavily damaged a pumping station. For now, tankers are still filling up with Saudi oil from storage tanks, but it underscored the vulnerability of the pipeline and the entire strategy of avoiding the Strait of Hormuz.
I have looked at all the data, and it appears the Houthis have struck this pumping station on the Saudi East-West Pipeline. The pumping station at 23.95909, 40.05338 is still on fire—it's the only pumping station on fire. NASA FIRMS shows every other location on the pipeline conducting flaring at proper locations. The pipeline is likely no longer moving crude, as they have started flaring at Yanbu. Only two VLCCs were docked today. Luckily, only a few vessels were waiting to load. My tool will help ID vessels and fast id known location images.
https://t.co/S8Pn0kOXb8 pic.twitter.com/paUouF4OhG— Ali (@MerruX) September 11, 2026
I have looked at all the data, and it appears the Houthis have struck this pumping station on the Saudi East-West Pipeline. The pumping station at 23.95909, 40.05338 is still on fire—it's the only pumping station on fire. NASA FIRMS shows every other location on the pipeline conducting flaring at proper locations. The pipeline is likely no longer moving crude, as they have started flaring at Yanbu. Only two VLCCs were docked today. Luckily, only a few vessels were waiting to load. My tool will help ID vessels and fast id known location images
Yemen anti-Houthi coalition splits
The defeat on Thursday resulted in the UAE-sponsored STC blocking the retreat of Yemen government forces and leaving them trapped by the Houthis. This is a huge change in the regional alignment of forces. Whether this is the STC acting out of frustration or a sign that the government coalition is over is something to watch.
The entire Saudi-backed mercenary garrison that fled the West Coast is reportedly stuck outside Aden, blocked from entering by UAE-backed mercenary forces, who are seen filming and mocking them for their cowardice. pic.twitter.com/P3HZe2tgFk— روني الدنماركي (@aldnmarki) September 10, 2026
🇾🇪 UPDATE: As President Leadership Council forces retreat from Mocha, former Southern Transitional Council formations are now blocking their entry into southern areas like Aden and Lahij.
They're demanding full disarmament before allowing passage.
In a further twist, STC forces… https://t.co/IBtn3yuPnn pic.twitter.com/w4tEeFq24O— NewsForce (@Newsforce) September 10, 2026
UPDATE: As President Leadership Council forces retreat from Mocha, former Southern Transitional Council formations are now blocking their entry into southern areas like Aden and Lahij.
They're demanding full disarmament before allowing passage.
In a further twist, STC forces are reportedly mobilizing to seize Aden from the PLC themselves, aiming to prevent the city from eventually falling to the advancing Houthis, deepening the fractures within Yemen's anti-Houthi coalition as the military collapse accelerates.
Houthis: free agents or proxies?
It is hard to tell if the Houthis are acting as free agents or if they are acting as Iranian proxies. The Houthis announced a blockade of Saudi Arabia in July even as Iran was calling for them to totally block Bab al-Mandeb; see New: Iran Now Calling on Houthis to Block Red Sea Gateway – RedState. Since then, their attacks on Red Sea shipping have been limited to Saudi-related vessels. According to reports, the Houthis called President Trump and asked him not to interfere in the conflict. It looks like they got the message he sent in July; see President Trump Puts Iran on Notice: Rein in the Houthis Now or Else – RedState
Trump on Yemen:
Houthis called us and they don't want to fight with us.
They let us know they don't want us to go after them.
They are letting most ships go through. pic.twitter.com/TtaxuR0PXz— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 12, 2026
We had discussions. The Houthis called us. They don't want to fight with us. They let us know they don't want to fight with us. They don't want us to go after them. But they called and they talked to us and they don't want us to...they would much prefer not having us involved. They're letting most ships go through. There's one country they're not too happy with and we'll get that straightened out.
If the Houthis refrain from attacking non-Saudi shipping, then this becomes a back-burner crisis that we can kick down the road a bit.
Is Iran getting cold feet?
The drone attack on the Saudi pipeline pumping station caused a couple of unexpected things to happen. First, Iran, via its Iraqi proxy force, immediately denied any involvement in the episode. This is very much unlike the Iran before Operation Epic Fury which scabbed credit for things it didn't do.
The IRGC-backed "Islamic Resistance in Iraq" officially denies recent accusations that they targeted vital Saudi facilities last Friday. They refer to the alleged attack as an "honor we do not claim," and criticize the Iraqi government for hastily believing these claims without solid evidence or investigation.
They warn against falling for "Zionist-American plots" intended to drag Iraq into internal and external crises.
pic.twitter.com/EQiEsrBAFi— Shin (@hey_itsmyturn) September 12, 2026
The IRGC-backed "Islamic Resistance in Iraq" officially denies recent accusations that they targeted vital Saudi facilities last Friday. They refer to the alleged attack as an "honor we do not claim," and criticize the Iraqi government for hastily believing these claims without solid evidence or investigation. They warn against falling for "Zionist-American plots" intended to drag Iraq into internal and external crises.
The Iraqi government showed an immediate reaction. It immediately closed the main border crossings with Iran.
Arab sources tell Al Arabiya that Iraq has fully closed the Shalameja, Sheeb, and Mandali border crossings with Iran.— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) September 11, 2026
Arab sources tell Al Arabiya that Iraq has fully closed the Shalameja, Sheeb, and Mandali border crossings with Iran.
It also fired a military commander responsible for border security.
Iraq has dismissed a military commander after investigations found that recent drone attacks targeting Saudi Arabia were launched from Iraqi territory, the prime minister’s office said.
The commander, who oversaw operations in Maysan province in southern Iraq, was removed…— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 12, 2026
Iraq has dismissed a military commander after investigations found that recent drone attacks targeting Saudi Arabia were launched from Iraqi territory, the prime minister’s office said.
The commander, who oversaw operations in Maysan province in southern Iraq, was removed following the findings.
The fact that neither Iran nor its Iraqi proxy have claimed credit is a sign that someone may be tapping the brakes.
U.S. involvement on the horizon?
There are two parts to this.
First and foremost, if the Houthis limit their shipping attack to vessels carrying Saudi cargo, that makes this a Saudi problem. The Saudis were unable or unwilling to lift a finger to help the Yemen government so, in my view, there is no reason for us to do so.
The second part is that we are engaged in a crucial strategic conflict with Iran. If we back down from our stated victory conditions and especially if we allow Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz, then we have lost credibility worldwide. If Trump expands the war to include Yemen, which might have to be done eventually, before the midterms, he will be politically punished. Plus the spectacle of Saudi Arabia asking for the U.S. to fight a war for it on the anniversary of 9/11 was sort of obscene.
Bottom line
The Houthis controlling access to the Red Sea is not a good thing. In fact, it is a bad thing that we may have to deal with later. Right now, we can't afford to take our eye off the main event, the war with Iran, unless the Houthis start acting ignorant.
This is also a lesson for the Saudis. For too long, the Saudis have skated with the U.S. providing its security while it acted like a regional power. To paraphrase the words to the immortal Harry Callahan:
This could end up being a null set, once the queasiness of the world markets settle down. If Suez traffic is uninterrupted and the Saudis care enough to keep their shipping safe, then its Houthi offensive isn't a world or American problem. That could change overnight, just like it did Wednesday.
About time someone paid back “the Kingdom” for 9/11 and what an appropriate time for someone to attack Saudi Arabia.
And to think it would be the Houthi-Iran Axis.
We sale or give billions of dollars of military arms to Saudi and then they call us to do their dirty work while they sit back and watch it. Just like Israel.
RE: ... while they sit back and watch it. Just like Israel.
NOPE, totally inaccurate adding Israel to this.
Israel destroyed Saddam’s (Yes, IRAQ’s) Osirak Nuclear Weapons develop0ment program. They didn’t ask for American help there. In fact, the strike was planned and executed in secrecy, catching the U.S. government off guard.
Israeli intelligence played a critical role in facilitating and planning the U.S. strikes on Iran’s deeply buried Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant during Operation Midnight Hammer. While the U.S. carried out the actual bombing of Fordow using B-2 stealth bombers dropped with Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) “bunker buster” bombs—a capability unique to the U.S. military—Israel’s contributions were instrumental.
It was also Israel’s airstrike that killed the Ayatollah Khameini. Several IRGC top ranking commanders were killed by Israel.
Israel is fighting and defeating Hezbollah AND Hamas without asking the USA to intervene.
They are NOT sitting back and watching unlike the Saudis.
Israel’s approach to Saudis one of subversion sending out the overt feelers and covert ones like Jeffrey Epstein trying to divide and conquer the Arab countries get them into “Abraham Accords”.
You need your head examined you damn fool
I feel like I read a lot of that twice.
I feel like I read a lot of that twice.
That's not just oil tankers heading for east Asia from Yanbu, it's virtually the entire maritime trade between Europe and Asia. From the islands seized the Houthis don't need vulnerable missile launchers to harass shipping; simple line-of-sight targeting with tube artillery will do the trick.
I down in my gut don’t want anyone hurt but the notion of Saudi involvement in 9/11 not debatable it’s been ignored all these years in favor of the “get Iran” agenda.
Look past the end of your nose fool
Amen, but I could see the feckless effeminate Saudis (Soddomites) asking Israel to take out the Houthis. Israel has hit them before.
You gotta be kidding - we have to rein Israel in from time to time because they are very active in their own defense.
I’ve been on FR for a number of years and have to wonder - “Where have all the smart ones gone?”
This lengthy (even without all the repeats) article managed to either miss or leave out almost as much as it gets right. The biggest glaring error is that the Saudis HAVE conducted numerous airstrikes against the advancing Houthis, but it appears the effect was about the equivalent of throwing some pieces of gravel at advancing army ants. The airstrikes may be continuing, but I’ve seen no update on that.
Trump has always wanted the Saudis to do more to step up to the plate, and he is likely still angry that the Saudis actually refused US’ use of airbases in SA when Trump initially tried to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Unless the Saudis figure out how to use their huge weapons stockpile effectively, Trump has huge leverage on the Saudis, IF he chooses to use it.
The Iranians and all their proxies are quite adept at that “say the right thing to buy time to dig in” tactic. No one seems to catch on, either...
That said, it should also be noted that a very large portion of that maritime trade between Europe and Asia has been diverting around the ME and going around the south end of Africa. Of course, that has a negative economic effect which creates more instability in more places than I can count... :-(
Agree. I fail to see their logic and it is persistent. I tend to assume ‘they’ are not real and posting the imaginations of enemies of people that desire liberty.
Saudi actions show tremendous weakness. They have not shown any strength outside of funding Wahabi philosophy around the world.
Saudi Arabia actively pursues initiatives to counteract the Abraham Accords; on top of signing military deals with the US. They are not a friend of any kind to the ideals of liberty. Seems like the fundamental forms of their death cult have a tighter grip on their society than they can control themselves.
No- Israel fights back and more times than not- fight their own battles...stop being stupid...
The Saudi’s have tons of our military equipment as you stated- when do they EVER fight back??? They are filthy muslims- like bin-laden and the rest, they want others to die for their cause...
“Arab sources tell Al Arabiya that Iraq has fully closed the Shalameja, Sheeb, and Mandali border crossings with Iran.”
I saw another report that Turkey has also closed its border crossings with Iran.
Pakistan is deep in bed with China on its Belt and Road Initiative, and as a Strategic counterweight to India, but a simultaneous closure of traffic with Iraq, Turkey and Pakistan would be worse for Iran than closure of the Bab al Mandeb is for Saudi Arabia.
So salty...have a mouthful of Dee's nuts
Those scumbag halfwit Houthis would be nothing you ever heard of, without Iran massively funding their military, missiles, drones and rockets for at least 15 years. IRGC played the long game of dual chokepoints for Middle East oil + NUCLEAR weapons. These Iranian Muslim maggots know how to do a lot with a little.
“Seems like the fundamental forms of their death cult have a tighter grip on their society than they can control themselves.”
In 2017, and continuing since, the current Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Muhammad bin Salman (MBS) cracked down hard on his political rivals, the former power structure of Saudi Arabia (the children of king Abdullah) that had been in charge around 9-11, as well as the Wahabi Islamic preachers leading the jihadi movement (especially any associated with the Muslim Brotherhood).
Many of the highest profile extreme Wahabi preachers from back then are still in prison or under home arrest in Saudi Arabia, forbidden from making public statements, and monitored intensely.
MBS has made lots of policy decisions (like letting women drive) that showcase his expressed policy of practicing a more moderate form of Islam.
By its nature, from its beginning and throughout its history, the interpretation of Islam has been very amenable to the whims of the monarch. It is kind of inherently political. The prophet Muhammad himself, with his sponsor and successor Abu Bakr, used Islam as the organizing method for their lifelong campaigns of military and political conquest.
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