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Posted on 03/18/2026 2:49:17 PM PDT by KingofZion
Despite a long, entrenched Democratic reign over California politics, a new poll shows two Republicans leading by slim margins in the state’s 2026 race for governor as the June primary election fast approaches.
The confounding results appear to be mostly due to the state’s left-leaning electorate feeling uninspired by any single candidate in the crowded field of eight top Democrats. Because of California’s top-two primary rule, that lethargy could lead to Democrats being shut out of a November election that will determine the next leader of the largest state in the union, though that is still considered unlikely.
Conservative commentator Steve Hilton had the support of 17% of likely voters and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco had the backing of 16%, according to a poll released Wednesday by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by The Times.
Following closely behind were Democrats Rep. Eric Swalwell of Northern California and former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter, both of whom had support from 13% of the likely voters surveyed. Aside from billionaire hedge fund founder and environmental activist Tom Steyer, who registered at 10% support after plowing tens of millions of dollars into his campaign, no other Democrat had won support from more than 5% of likely voters, the poll showed.
Mark DiCamillo, director of the poll, said he was stunned by how fractured voters are and how little knowledge they have about the candidates less than 60 days before ballots start arriving in Californians’ mailboxes.
*** The two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary are the only ones who advance to the November general election — regardless of their political party.
The odds that a Republican will become California’s next governor appear slim.
***MORE
(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...
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Even if one candidate dies after June, they still remain on the ballot and cannot be replaced.
Voters show scattered preference for governor in crowded field:
Steve Hilton (R) Small business owner 17%
Chad Bianco (R) Riverside County sheriff 16%
Eric Swalwell (D) U.S. representative 13%
Katie Porter (D) Consumer protection advocate 13%
Tom Steyer (D) Climate advocate 10%
Xavier Becerra (D) Voting rights advocate 5%
Antonio Villaraigosa (D) Housing affordability advocate 4%
Matt Mahan (D) Mayor of San Jose 4%
Others with 1%
No matter what there will be a runoff.
I don’t think Hilton or the other R get in. If one does they probably won’t win.
CA is crazy.
If the gop wins it will just mean he will be holding a huge bag of excrement. He will be vilified for all that has gone on before him.
If GOP goes 1/2 CA will sue to get a D on the ballot. Guaranteed.
That’s not how it works.
Is it a plurality? I thought the top 2 runoff.
Seems like the Democrats are behind Swalwell now.
When Hilton takes office he should immediately enforce Proposition 187, and run it up the court system to the SCOTUS.
IIRC-—CALIF RULES DEMAND THAT A GOVERNOR CANDIDATE BE A KNOWN RESIDENT OF CALIF FOR A MINIMUM OF 5 YEARS.
SWALWELL DOES NOT MEET THAT STANDARD.
HE HAS USED HIS LAWYERS OFFICE AS “AN ADDRESS’.
I looked it up. I was correct. Primary is June 2nd. The top two candidates regardless of party face off in November.
Couldn’t find what happens if one gets 50% plus 1 in the primary.
Not to worry, if R is leading, the cheat will begin.
I wish they would can their Afriggan Trump hater Karen Firestarter.
I’ve got a feeling that the Californicators will be counting “votes” until Christmas this year. They are already paying their illegal alien invaders 10 bucks per signature.
I think that the way that a Republican wins a runoff is if somehow, its Hilton or Bianco vs. Porter. Porter is so toxic and nasty that a big chunk of the party establishment and donor base may switch sides. Especially if its Hilton.
Possible it could be Hilton vs. Bianco.
Other than executive orders (if there is such a thing in states) what can a Republican governor possibly do when the legislature has a supermajority of Democrats?
I will wager it takes weeks and weeks and months to count the ballots.
Undecideds at 16%. Expected to see higher %. Most of those folks will probably not go vote. All elections are about ethusasim and turnout. Who is exciting folks. Who is getting supporters to go vote. About 30% elliglble voter turnout.
California Elections
Population 39,000,000
2022 General 10,933,018 total voters (Gavin Newsom Incumbent)
2022 Primary 7,063,888
10 Candidates
2018 General 12,464,235 total voters (Open Seat)
2018 Primary 6,961,130
10 Candidates
2014 General 7,317,581 total voters (Jerry Brown Incumbent)
2014 Primary 4,332,995
15 Candidates
2014 General 7,317,581 total voters (Jerry Brown Incumbent)
2014 Primary 4,332,995
15 Candidates
The jungle primary was instituted for the 2012 election cycle.
2014 General 10,095,185 total voters (Open Seat)
2014 Primary 4,332,995
15 Candidates
Dem Primary 2,317,850
Rep Primary 2,316,071
Almost the same voter turnout
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