Posted on 11/10/2025 7:20:27 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
Although a general election is not likely until 2029—a lifetime in political terms—the latest opinion polls show that British politics are becoming ever more fragmented.
Over the past year support has haemorrhaged away from Labour under Sir Keir Starmer, the prime minister, with the primary beneficiary being Reform UK. A simple calculation based on uniform national swing suggests that if an election were held tomorrow Reform would have a one-in-five chance of winning a majority in the Commons.
And if Reform banded together with the listless Conservatives, they would have a four-in-five chance of a majority. By contrast the centre-left parties together have just a one-in-30 chance of winning. Explore how voting is changing across different demographic groups in Britain below.
By age
Labour’s decline in popularity is perhaps most acute with the young. At the election in 2024 Labour won nearly half the ballots of those aged under 35. Today they hold onto around one-quarter, as young voters are splintering both rightwards to Reform UK and leftwards towards the Greens.
Reform is now the most favoured party among people between 45 and 64 years old and is also now leading among the Conservative Party’s most dependable supporters: pensioners.
(Excerpt) Read more at economist.com ...
One in five chance? Reform’s numbers are approaching Labor’s when Labor won a crushing super-majority (4 out of 5, including LDs). Sure the Liberal Democrats stood down to help ensure Labor won the most possible, a level of alliance the Conservatives sure-as-Hell won’t work for Reformers, but I can’t believe leading all opposing parties almost two-to-one can’t get you a majority.
I should note that yes, the Reformers aren’t polling anywhere near a majority, but they are miles ahead of any opponent, and this is a first-past-the-post, winner-take-all electoral system where the opposition is fractured four ways and in two opposing camps. So they don’t have to win 50%; they just have to beat the conservatives and whoever the the Labor, Green and Liberal Democrat parties can best coalesce behind.
The Tory Party needs to go ahead and die. Labour is dying as well. If Reform needs to make a deal with any party in Parliament, it will likely be the Lib Dems.
Economist now solid woke.
STarmer is our Schumer.
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