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Posted on 08/04/2025 3:17:42 PM PDT by NoLibZone
Based on 2025 assessments from NIST, IBM, and expert surveys, the probability of quantum computing cracking SHA-256 (via Grover's algorithm, reducing preimage search to ~2^128 operations) is near 0% in the next 5 years and <10% by 2035.
It requires millions of error-corrected qubits; current systems top ~1,000 noisy ones.
Bitcoin's hashing remains secure for now.
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Perhaps someone should decide whose “side” @GROK is on?!
Simple question: How does one know when they have successfully cracked the code?
We’ll know when you see 14-year-old kids launching ICBM’s!
Being able to crack, bitcoin would be the very smallest of our concerns.
Nice. Thanks.
Me thinks that messing around with AI and quantum computing does not bode well for the existence of homo sapiens. Do homo sapiens really understand what they are doing? For example, when AI cracks the digital coin algorithm security program, then what?
It will be orders of magnitude simpler for them to simply drain all funds from every bank on the planet.
There is no reason why Bitcoin couldn’t fork into SHA-1024 or better. At that point anyone with a wallet could merely move their BTC to a fresh address and benefit from the new security.
The “code” would give you access to a single wallet. Now, whether that wallet has 1,000 bitcoin in it…or .001 you would have to strong arm the process for every wallet out there.
I guess the thing that makes me laugh is that bitcoin is a $2 Trillion market. The banking system is $100 trillion? Where would you target your massive quantum hash breaking system?
Riiight. What’s a qubit?
I have learned over my 80 years that there is always a smart guy (nowadays computer) that will eventually come along to outdo the guy who thinks he has it all figured out. It is my view that this truism will also be the case with digital currency in the AI-quantum computing world. Digital assets as opposed to hard physical assets, i.e. land, gold, etc., are way too ephemeral in my way of thinking. I suppose I’m too old school for the young-ins but I need something that is physical and has value to allow me a sound night’s sleep.
So...SHA-256 is essentially just data encryption?
When (and if) AI develops the ability to create complicated algorithms then all bets are off. Even the advocates of AI admit that once it gets rolling, there is no telling how fast and how far it will progress past our brightest brains. If even a small percentage of the AI hype is true, it will leave humans in the dust.
It will be cracked and not-cracked simultaneously
My question alludes to the process. Unless you arrive at a decrypted result that makes sense, you haven’t broken the code.
Having access to the wallet means that you can send the crypto out of the wallet.
Maybe I'm not fully aware of the power code-breaking algorithms, but I think custom mutation of source files would stymie recognition of intrusion.
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