Latest voting intention survey by INSA for the Bundestag election

PolitPro ^ | 4/7/2025 | NA

[Redmen4ever]

AfD and CDU continue tied at 24.5

[Redmen4ever]

other recent polls (GMS, Infratest Dimap, Forsa) show CDU ahead by only 1 or 2 points

[ScaniaBoy]

The election was held recently so if nothing special happens the Germans will not vote in a general election for a couple of years. However, the opnion polls show that people are not happy with CDU/CSU forming a new government with the old one (SPD). Even centre-conservatives like Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung warned that the voters had voted for a new policy, and if they did not get that AfD would continue to grow.

[nathanbedford]

The election occurred when the governing coalition headed by the socialist SPD broke apart forcing that election. The so-called "conservative" CDU/CSU fended off a flank attack from the right waged by the very articulate Alice Weigel for the ADF by promising to abandon the policies of the leftist dying socialist coalition (" traffic light" coalition named for color of the parties) and, in effect, adopt the policies of the AFD, especially concerning immigration reduction and energy expansion.

In fending off this attack, Friedrich Merz made personal assurances that he could not keep and still put together a coalition to win himself the chancellorship. In other words in order to attain a governing majority, the CDU/CSU would have to revert to policies acceptable to the former governing coalition. These, especially the greens and the SPD, find those promises to be repugnant. But the retreat to the positions of the old coalition is becoming repugnant to the electorate.

So the matter stalls and with the delay the public has seen that the campaign promises of the CDU/CSU are illusory and in an historically extraordinary reaction the public sentiment just reflected in the polls have shown a surge in support for AFD and a corresponding weakening for CDU/CSU and its former coalition parties and for Frederick Merz personally.

The CDU/CSU has fallen from 30% to 24% and the AFD has risen from a 20% to 24%.

The CDU/CSU led in the election with about 30% of the votes and the AFD garnered about 20% so it was conceivable that these 2 parties could form a coalition government and prevail. But in the course of this campaign and for years the various parties have insisted that no coalition could be formed with the right wing AFD because of its alleged "extremist" policies and history.

The ostracism of the AFD has acquired a name, "firewall" (Brandmauer) but that barrier is daily coming under increasing pressure as the old government lingers on and relative power positions of the parties change.

In my view, even if CDU/CSU can prevail and form a government, it cannot last a 5 year term.

The AFD, as we know, has been endorsed by the Trump administration and has as its platform virtually Word for Word the MAGA platform. Significantly, AFD platform calls for energy from Russia and close trade and diplomatic ties with Russia and China, perhaps telling of Trump's long-term goals.