Posted on 04/02/2025 4:53:27 PM PDT by Hieronymus
We’re deep into the second week of this election campaign and it appears to be Mark Carney’s to lose. But just how solid is the support for the Liberals, and what can Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives do to get back into the race?
This week on The Writ Podcast, I’m joined ahead by the Pollster Panel to break it all down.
Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was . .. .the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.
Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns ....
James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. . . including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.
(Excerpt) Read more at youtube.com ...
Trump has managed to unite the Canadian left and drive the Quebec-centric voters into a temporary willingness to back the LPCs. Conservatives haven't lost ground, but in a true two-party race, they lose. There is still time for the grand coalition to come apart, but something needs to shift and it is out of CPC hands.
PingCanadaPing
Freepmail me if you want on or off the Canadian List, which I will be running through the election.
There was an article this morning that discussed how a good number of voters were still likely to change their minds before the end. The Conservative number is very strong in that matter of decided voters, so that is in their favour. Hopefully Poilievre can change and capture the minds of a number of fence sitters.
It makes no sense that people who wanted to get rid of Trudeau are now going to vote for the guy who was his adviser.
If they thought things were bad under Trudeau, just wait until the elitist Carney gets in.
Post the article if you can, ping me, and I’ll ping the list.
Whose riding are you in?
I’m hoping the NDP can pull things together.
The podcast does make the point that if the tariffs turn into a nothing burger, or if they end up being a huge problem, there is potential blowback for the LPC either way.
The conservative numbers haven’t dropped tremendously. The Bloc and the NDP numbers have.
PP is also something of an attack dog, and his attacks on Trudeau were much more effective than those on Carney. That Carney went ahead and reversed some things that Trudeau and did some other things serves to create some daylight between himself and Trudeau.
Carney has cut income taxes in the lowest bracket and seemingly trashed the Carbon Tax. That isn’t nothing.
Alberta and the other prairie provinces are relatively conservative and have more ties to the US than Eastern Canada.
Wow. Buyers remorse before you even purchase the item.
If you’d like Colorado shorn of the fourth and fifth congressional districts, you’ll find Alberta a nice fit.
Redmonton is far to the left of Denver.
Calgary is better than Redmonton. Whether it is at all better than Denver is debatable.
Rural Alberta is better—but it is only about a third of the population.
I sure hope Pierre Poilievre is elected.
The socialist polls are fraudulent just like they were for Kamela. They want to keep us home. Get out and vote.
I’ll vote.
That said, do you really think that the pollsters are deliberately tanking the Bloc and the NDP for the sake of the Liberals?
My riding is utterly safe, and I has an MP that voted against renewing the Paris accord-—something no other riding can claim.
So do I—although at this point I would settle for yet another Liberal minority.
“Carney has cut income taxes in the lowest bracket and seemingly trashed the Carbon Tax”
For how long? If PP isn’t able to attack Carney and his scare tactics, & offer voters a better Canada, then he’s going to lose
It’s possible that he will reverse the decision three days, months, or years after the election, but raising that possibility includes advertising the actual action.
PP has promised a deeper cut and is more believable on making the Carbon Tax elimination permanent, but it was easier goint against PT
The best strategy for Carney is continued friction with Trump. A trade deal would decrease the level of hate that is driving centrists to the left.
The bigger problem is the farther left (NDP and Bloc) being driven to the relative centre (LPC)—and friction will perpetuate if not accelerate that.
I should have just responded yes.
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