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Is it baked-in or could the polls change? (Canada ELection)
The Writ Podcast (Youtube) ^ | Apr 2, 2025 | Éric Grenier

Posted on 04/02/2025 4:53:27 PM PDT by Hieronymus

We’re deep into the second week of this election campaign and it appears to be Mark Carney’s to lose. But just how solid is the support for the Liberals, and what can Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives do to get back into the race?

This week on The Writ Podcast, I’m joined ahead by the Pollster Panel to break it all down.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was . .. .the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns ....

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. . . including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

(Excerpt) Read more at youtube.com ...


TOPICS: Canada; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: canada; carney
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First 7-10 minutes strike me as best.

Trump has managed to unite the Canadian left and drive the Quebec-centric voters into a temporary willingness to back the LPCs. Conservatives haven't lost ground, but in a true two-party race, they lose. There is still time for the grand coalition to come apart, but something needs to shift and it is out of CPC hands.

1 posted on 04/02/2025 4:53:27 PM PDT by Hieronymus
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To: headsonpikes; AK2KX; JudyinCanada; Alberta's Child; Jonty30; Steven Tyler; sweetiepiezer; Bulwyf; ..

PingCanadaPing

Freepmail me if you want on or off the Canadian List, which I will be running through the election.


2 posted on 04/02/2025 4:55:15 PM PDT by Hieronymus ( )
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To: Hieronymus

There was an article this morning that discussed how a good number of voters were still likely to change their minds before the end. The Conservative number is very strong in that matter of decided voters, so that is in their favour. Hopefully Poilievre can change and capture the minds of a number of fence sitters.


3 posted on 04/02/2025 4:57:14 PM PDT by OttawaFreeper ("The Gardens was founded by men-sportsmen-who fought for their country" Conn Smythe, 1966 )
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To: Hieronymus

It makes no sense that people who wanted to get rid of Trudeau are now going to vote for the guy who was his adviser.
If they thought things were bad under Trudeau, just wait until the elitist Carney gets in.


4 posted on 04/02/2025 4:58:36 PM PDT by nuconvert ( Warning: Accused of being a radical militarist. Approach with caution.)
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To: OttawaFreeper
Canucks are hopelessly liberal. For those who lived there, seen how inconsistent they are. They are Canadian first and hate being equated with Americans.
5 posted on 04/02/2025 5:01:52 PM PDT by Fungi
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To: OttawaFreeper

Post the article if you can, ping me, and I’ll ping the list.

Whose riding are you in?

I’m hoping the NDP can pull things together.

The podcast does make the point that if the tariffs turn into a nothing burger, or if they end up being a huge problem, there is potential blowback for the LPC either way.


6 posted on 04/02/2025 5:05:11 PM PDT by Hieronymus ( )
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To: nuconvert

The conservative numbers haven’t dropped tremendously. The Bloc and the NDP numbers have.

PP is also something of an attack dog, and his attacks on Trudeau were much more effective than those on Carney. That Carney went ahead and reversed some things that Trudeau and did some other things serves to create some daylight between himself and Trudeau.

Carney has cut income taxes in the lowest bracket and seemingly trashed the Carbon Tax. That isn’t nothing.


7 posted on 04/02/2025 5:08:31 PM PDT by Hieronymus ( )
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To: Fungi

Alberta and the other prairie provinces are relatively conservative and have more ties to the US than Eastern Canada.


8 posted on 04/02/2025 5:10:48 PM PDT by kaktuskid
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To: Hieronymus

Wow. Buyers remorse before you even purchase the item.


9 posted on 04/02/2025 5:12:40 PM PDT by rottweiller_inc (Lupus urbem intravit. Fulminis ictu vultures super turrem exanimat. )
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To: kaktuskid

If you’d like Colorado shorn of the fourth and fifth congressional districts, you’ll find Alberta a nice fit.

Redmonton is far to the left of Denver.

Calgary is better than Redmonton. Whether it is at all better than Denver is debatable.

Rural Alberta is better—but it is only about a third of the population.


10 posted on 04/02/2025 5:20:18 PM PDT by Hieronymus ( )
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To: Hieronymus

I sure hope Pierre Poilievre is elected.


11 posted on 04/02/2025 5:24:36 PM PDT by MtnClimber (For photos of scenery, wildlife and climbing, click on my screen name for my FR home page.)
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To: Hieronymus

The socialist polls are fraudulent just like they were for Kamela. They want to keep us home. Get out and vote.


12 posted on 04/02/2025 5:26:12 PM PDT by balk
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To: balk

I’ll vote.

That said, do you really think that the pollsters are deliberately tanking the Bloc and the NDP for the sake of the Liberals?

My riding is utterly safe, and I has an MP that voted against renewing the Paris accord-—something no other riding can claim.


13 posted on 04/02/2025 5:33:15 PM PDT by Hieronymus ( )
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To: MtnClimber

So do I—although at this point I would settle for yet another Liberal minority.


14 posted on 04/02/2025 5:34:56 PM PDT by Hieronymus ( )
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To: balk
FB_IMG_1743204321672
15 posted on 04/02/2025 5:43:22 PM PDT by balk
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To: Hieronymus

“Carney has cut income taxes in the lowest bracket and seemingly trashed the Carbon Tax”

For how long? If PP isn’t able to attack Carney and his scare tactics, & offer voters a better Canada, then he’s going to lose


16 posted on 04/02/2025 5:45:59 PM PDT by nuconvert ( Warning: Accused of being a radical militarist. Approach with caution.)
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To: nuconvert

It’s possible that he will reverse the decision three days, months, or years after the election, but raising that possibility includes advertising the actual action.

PP has promised a deeper cut and is more believable on making the Carbon Tax elimination permanent, but it was easier goint against PT


17 posted on 04/02/2025 5:48:56 PM PDT by Hieronymus ( )
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To: Hieronymus
Trump has managed to unite the Canadian left and drive the Quebec-centric voters into a temporary willingness to back the LPCs.

The best strategy for Carney is continued friction with Trump. A trade deal would decrease the level of hate that is driving centrists to the left.

18 posted on 04/02/2025 5:49:39 PM PDT by ETCM (“There is no security, no safety, in the appeasement of evil.” — Ronald Reagan)
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To: ETCM

The bigger problem is the farther left (NDP and Bloc) being driven to the relative centre (LPC)—and friction will perpetuate if not accelerate that.


19 posted on 04/02/2025 5:51:33 PM PDT by Hieronymus ( )
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To: ETCM

I should have just responded yes.


20 posted on 04/02/2025 5:52:30 PM PDT by Hieronymus ( )
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