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2030 Apportionment Forecast (Electoral College Votes)- As of December 2024.
American Redistricting Project ^ | 12/19/2024 | staff

Posted on 03/20/2025 7:27:57 PM PDT by Az Joe

Congressional representation is reapportioned every decade following the completion of the decennial census.


TOPICS: Government; Miscellaneous; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2030; apportionment
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1 posted on 03/20/2025 7:27:57 PM PDT by Az Joe
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To: Az Joe

2 posted on 03/20/2025 7:29:24 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: Az Joe

Comeonman, at least an excerpt.


3 posted on 03/20/2025 7:30:27 PM PDT by FreedomNotSafety
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To: MinorityRepublican

Take THAT, ya commie A-holes!


4 posted on 03/20/2025 7:38:59 PM PDT by JME_FAN
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To: Az Joe

Will this census be accurate?
Will we get rid of enough illegals to stop them altering the tally?


5 posted on 03/20/2025 7:43:31 PM PDT by Ex gun maker. (Free thinking is now a radical concept, I will not be assimilated by PC or EV group-think!)
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To: Ex gun maker.

Great question on the illegals.

That will change all the numbers very significantly.


6 posted on 03/20/2025 7:45:18 PM PDT by cgbg (It was not us. It was them--all along.)
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To: FreedomNotSafety

There’s no excerpt


7 posted on 03/20/2025 7:49:49 PM PDT by Az Joe (We can't spare President Trump; He fights!)
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To: Az Joe

What is this crap without a summary?


8 posted on 03/20/2025 8:44:47 PM PDT by nwrep
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To: nwrep

I got your summary right here beotch


9 posted on 03/20/2025 8:49:06 PM PDT by Az Joe (We can't spare President Trump; He fights!)
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To: Az Joe

I hope, they will stop counting noncitizens for the purpose of apportionment.
I hope, Trump will get it right this time!
That may gain some republican seats and merge some democratic ones.


10 posted on 03/20/2025 9:04:42 PM PDT by AZJeep (sane )
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To: Az Joe

LOL


11 posted on 03/20/2025 9:39:35 PM PDT by nwrep
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To: MinorityRepublican

Looks like rats lose 9 solid votes, maybe 10. a couple red votes shift from one red state to another, and a solid gain of 9-10 blue to red. That will help with swing states.


12 posted on 03/20/2025 9:50:43 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard ( Resist the narrative. )
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To: hinckley buzzard

If fed employees are forced to move out of NoVa due to the downsizing of the federal government, all of a sudden Virginia’s back in play.


13 posted on 03/20/2025 9:59:10 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: hinckley buzzard

all the numbers are moving in our direction, we almost have a lock on the presidency and the house and senate starting in the 2030’s


14 posted on 03/21/2025 12:28:44 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009
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To: hinckley buzzard

“Looks like rats lose 9 solid votes, maybe 10. a couple red votes shift from one red state to another, and a solid gain of 9-10 blue to red. That will help with swing states.”

As far as electoral votes, this is all good news for now (especially when one assumes that Texas is 100% certain to stay “red” *forever*).

As far as U.S. HOUSE SEATS however, it is a complete fallacy to presume anything like:

“California loses 3 seats! That means 3 less Democrats in the House!”

Or even “Utah gains a seat! That’s DEFINITELY one more Republican in the House!”


15 posted on 03/21/2025 4:25:42 AM PDT by PermaRag (Facts, context, and more facts)
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To: PermaRag

Or California ensures three red areas are diluted to make 3 more democrat seats. I could see them do that.


16 posted on 03/21/2025 5:17:18 AM PDT by napscoordinator (DeSantis is a beast! Florida is the freest state in the country! )
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To: napscoordinator

That’s entirely possible in CA. Even after all of the close ballot-harvesting losses in 2024, there are still more vulnerable Republicans who could be picked off.

Assuming that these census projections are accurate, we know only 1 thing for sure: Rhode Island is definitely losing a Democrat seat. :-)

We can *almost* count on Oregon losing 1 too, since they already control 5 of 6 seats and it would be difficult for them to sweep the entire state (until the good counties break off and join Idaho, anyway). But never underestimate the creativity of Democrat gerrymanderers.

Republicans are likely to get screwed (-1 or -2 House seats) in Wisconsin *before* the next census, but even if that somehow doesn’t happen in 2026 then they positively will be the ones to lose as a result of reapportionment in 2032.


17 posted on 03/21/2025 5:26:29 AM PDT by PermaRag (Facts, context, and more facts)
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To: Az Joe

Most people guess that 2030 will give the GOP +10 seats.

However, Trump’s Director of the Census can, and needs to, look at the fraudulent 2020 census and revise THOSE numbers for 2030. Seth Keshel esimates we lost 15 EVs/seats in that fraud. If we were to get some of those back, we could theoretically gain a whole new “Pennsylvania” in 2030.

I don’t think the DemoKKKrats have any clue as to how perilous their situation is.


18 posted on 03/21/2025 7:09:04 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." Jimi Hendrix)
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To: LS
Far be it from me to disagree with the anointed experts, but that +15 is hilarious, just like predictions of +10 or more in the House for the GOP in 2024 were.

Regarding reapportionment last time around, there were 14 states where the Census Bureau's post-enumeration survey conceded that significant errors were made in population counts.

https://thearp.org/blog/apportionment/2020-census-count-errors/

Of those 14, the correct apportionment in TEN of them was already in place. The others are Rhode Island (would have been -1 D), Minnesota (-1 R undoubtedly), Texas and Florida -- MAYBE +1 R in both of those. Net GOP gain, maybe +2. There of course can be dreams that the census fraud was more widespread than they admit (vastly at the expense of "red" states, natch) which I don't doubt is possible but some proof would be nice.

Texas, was under GOP control for redistricting but opted for the Incumbent Protection Plan (for BOTH parties) rather than get greedy and go for more, as the experts are surely aware. Florida's remapping went exactly as expected and resulted in major GOP gains already.

19 posted on 03/21/2025 9:20:17 AM PDT by PermaRag (Facts, context, and more facts)
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To: Az Joe

That’s the point I’m making. Post with an excerpt. Unless you are trying force us to click on a website.


20 posted on 03/21/2025 9:49:21 AM PDT by FreedomNotSafety
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