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Trump may have talked America into recession before a trade tariff was even imposed
Sky News ^ | March 4, 2025 | Ed Conway

Posted on 03/04/2025 8:16:38 AM PST by lasereye

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To: lasereye

Stock market is not the US economy, it is something that can be easily manipulated by the smallest thing.It is just a type of legalized gambling.


41 posted on 03/04/2025 9:34:50 AM PST by kaktuskid
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To: lasereye
  1. The piston is made in Canada.
  2. It gets shipped to a factory in Mexico where the engine is built.
  3. The engine is shipped to Canada where the auto is built.
  4. The auto gets shipped to a car dealer in the US.
  5. American workers get screwed and cannot afford to buy a car.

42 posted on 03/04/2025 9:35:47 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: lasereye
...it takes years to get factories built

I disagree under a Trump Administration.

43 posted on 03/04/2025 9:40:07 AM PST by Tommy Revolts
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To: central_va

Tariffs that went into effect 6 hours ago caused a recession.’

Ridiculous to be sure but never let the truth get in the way of any MSM narrative to hurt Trump.


44 posted on 03/04/2025 9:48:45 AM PST by gibsonguy
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To: lasereye

I thought about it crossing the border several times at different stages of production such as you describe. But SIX? That’s crazy.

I remember a diagram from a few years back that traced the delivery of a battery in an EV from mining the raw materials to the delivery in a car. It was staggering how the materials, semi-finished battery, finished battery and the final car moved around the globe.

Lithium from Australia, Chile, Argentina
Cobalt from Democratic Republic of Congo
Nickel from Indonesia, Russia, Canada
Graphite from China (60%+ of natural supply)
Raw material refining and processing in China (70-80% of this step, South Korea, Japan and U.S. (U.S. lags)
Battery cells are made in China, South Korea, Japan, and growing U.S. hubs (Tesla Gigafactories).
Battery Pack Assembly (cells grouped into modules, wired with cooling systems, and encased in a protective pack) in the U.S. (Tesla Nevada, GM Michigan), Europe (VW Germany), China (BYD Shenzhen).
Installation into vehicle in China and the U.S.


45 posted on 03/04/2025 9:48:51 AM PST by ProtectOurFreedom (Democrats who say ‘no one is above the law’ won’t mind going to prison for the money they stole)
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To: kaktuskid

You are correct, sir. Lasik does not quite understand this.


46 posted on 03/04/2025 9:50:35 AM PST by Right Brother (I don't really care Margaret.)
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To: Tommy Revolts

If it’s a large factory it will take years under any administration - if it’s a brand new factory. What do you think Trump can come up with some new construction techniques? I could see where a factory that is sitting idle could be up and running in maybe a year.


47 posted on 03/04/2025 9:53:32 AM PST by lasereye
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To: central_va

“Tariffs that went into effect 6 hours ago caused a recession.”

It seems ridiculous but the markets are nothing but price indicators of the future.

Yes, markets tend to overreact (look at China DeepSeek recently) and are often not reliable indicators. Look for a bounce back soon in this case.


48 posted on 03/04/2025 9:54:18 AM PST by ProtectOurFreedom (Democrats who say ‘no one is above the law’ won’t mind going to prison for the money they stole)
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To: lasereye
Is it better to have a job and pay $1,000 for a TV or

Have no job and TV's cost $900?

49 posted on 03/04/2025 9:55:20 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: lasereye

Too many dollars chasing too few goods is the primary driver of inflation.

Slowing the economy would mean few dollars to chase those goods

This is the painful balancing act of any capitalist society. How to balance between high unemployment/low inflation with low unemployment and high inflation.

People really need to reign in their expectations. Decades of mis management by the US Government was not going to be fixed painlessly in the 1st month of President Trumps 2nd Administration


50 posted on 03/04/2025 9:56:06 AM PST by MNJohnnie (Don't blame me, my congressman is MTG!)
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To: lasereye

Some “expert” opinions:

* Oxford Economics pegs a 0.7% GDP shave for the U.S. this year, with Canada and Mexico possibly tipping into recession.
* Jeremy Siegel at Wharton says it’s “not going to tank the U.S. economy” short-term—a few tenths off GDP, a bump in prices, but no cliff dive.
* Russell Investments echoes this, forecasting slower growth (maybe 10% S&P earnings instead of 13%) but dodging a full-blown downturn.
* Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research bets on U.S. resilience, calling it a “soft patch” if Trump negotiates quick deals.
* Connor Lokar, an economist cited by Nasdaq, argues tariffs historically don’t trigger recessions unless they crush consumer spending power, which he doesn’t see yet given rising disposable income trends.

Unknowns downside: Retaliation and duration. Canada’s already hit back with 25% on $107 billion of U.S. goods; Mexico’s promised the same but hasn’t detailed it; China’s talking WTO challenges and “countermeasures.” If this turns into a prolonged trade war, the Tax Foundation estimates 286,000 U.S. job losses and $830 extra per household in taxes—pain that could stall consumer spending (68% of GDP). Add a stronger dollar hurting exports, and the Bank of Canada’s 2.5% GDP hit scenario for Canada could ripple south. The possible cutoff of electricity exports from Canada to the northern tier US states. Stagflation—high inflation plus stagnant growth—looms if the Fed doesn’t ease rates, though some say it might hold off, treating tariffs as a supply shock.

Unknowns upside: if Trump’s bluff works and tariffs lift fast (say, by summer), the damage might just be a blip—short-term price hikes, some market jitters (Dow’s already wobbled), but no spiral. Data’s murky so far—January’s consumer spending dip was weather-related, per Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow, which flipped from 2.3% growth to a 2.8% Q1 decline. Too early to call that a trend.

So, will we have recession? Maybe—if tariffs stick, retaliation snowballs, and supply chains choke while consumers pull back. Maybe not—if they’re brief, the U.S. absorbs the hit, and growth chugs on.

Still looking for the one-armed economist!


51 posted on 03/04/2025 9:59:34 AM PST by ProtectOurFreedom (Democrats who say ‘no one is above the law’ won’t mind going to prison for the money they stole)
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To: lasereye
Well, so are you suggesting that we should continue to decline so that all of our trading partners have a trade imbalance in their favor?

Not only no, but hell no. We still have the strongest economy, but it could be a lot stronger if we get businesses to invest here to avoid tariffs. It also creates jobs here. As it stands right now, all we are doing is destroying our own children along with the future of this nation.

52 posted on 03/04/2025 10:00:46 AM PST by Robert DeLong
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To: lasereye
If we no longer have a manufactured goods to trade with then what will we trade with? Oil, food, real estate? Sounds like serfdom to me.
53 posted on 03/04/2025 10:04:01 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: Robert DeLong

These tariffs are very disruptive. I think a gradual approach would be prudent.


54 posted on 03/04/2025 11:05:09 AM PST by lasereye
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To: lasereye
Yes.

It's called 3D printing, prefabrication, and automation.

55 posted on 03/04/2025 11:11:50 AM PST by Tommy Revolts
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To: lasereye

Offshoring factories is also very disruptive, look all over the USA at devistated towns left behind.


56 posted on 03/04/2025 11:12:09 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: DownInFlames

Those of us who pay attention know that.

The media and the democrats...

it’s all trump and the teriffs fault.


57 posted on 03/04/2025 11:21:37 AM PST by cableguymn (They don't want peace they want skeletons )
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To: lasereye

This is what happens when you try to talk to ideologues. They twist everything to make it look like they are succeeding, no matter how things are actually going.


58 posted on 03/04/2025 11:28:16 AM PST by Dat
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To: Tommy Revolts

I have no idea what you’re talking about. Trump created 3D printing?

Nobody 3D prints a factory. I don’t think you mean that. As I said I have no idea what you’re talking about.


59 posted on 03/04/2025 11:30:41 AM PST by lasereye
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To: lasereye

They are a tool to get our trading partners to start trading on an even playing field. So, rethink your belief, because you are kowtowing to our trading partners allowing them to take advantage of this nation. Buy hey, if you have no children, then by all means, keep allowing the to keep tearing this nation apart.


60 posted on 03/04/2025 12:05:00 PM PST by Robert DeLong
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