Posted on 02/28/2025 12:21:14 PM PST by Hieronymus
Many Ontarians don't believe anyone can solve their biggest problems. They stuck with the devil they know
Some of us thought Doug Ford might be playing with fire by calling an election in the middle of a crisis — especially since it was so obvious ... he ... had been eager for any pretext to go early....
But status quo was good enough for the Tories beforehand, and it’s good enough now....
It stood to reason that health care might be the Tories’ Achilles’ heel, if they had one. They promised to “end hallway medicine” seven years and two elections ago, and as Crombie repeatedly and pithily observed, they “didn’t get it done.”
...But look at what pollster Leger found in a survey for Postmedia, released 10 days ago. After seven years of, shall we say, very mixed results, Ford was essentially tied with Crombie as the party leader respondents felt was best qualified to improve health care — 23 per cent for Ford, 22 per cent for Crombie.
“I don’t know (who would be best)” was way out in front at 36 per cent.
Indeed, on six of the nine issues Leger presented... didn’t know ... exceeded the number who chose any of the actual leaders. The exceptions:
On “growing Ontario’s economy,” Ford pipped “I don’t know” 37 per cent to 36.... On reducing gridlock, Ford was in front at 41 per cent, with “I don’t know” in second at 38 per cent... And on “defend(ing) Ontario’s interests from aggressive U.S. trade and economic policies,” Ford’s unabashed anti-Trump rhetoric and “Captain Canada” persona seem to have done the trick: 45 per cent felt Ford was the right person for the job, with “I don’t know” at 32 per cent and the others at just 22 per cent combined...
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalpost.com ...
Also fairly good analysis for people who are confused as to what a Progressive Conservative is, why anyone would vote for an oxymoron, and how Ford would have been walloped by "none of the above".
85% of Ontario’s exports are to the USA. And these are items like car parts and electricity that they would not able to sell to someone else.
Good luck to you all clinging to “Captain Canada”
Ping Canada Ping
A good article that I heavily pruned to come in under 300 words.
Also of interest Eric Grenier and Philippe Fournier’s “The Numbers” Podcast from today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szyCJdRjvuA
It is 25 minutes long and six hours old-—I haven’t listened yet but may post it separately after I have listened to it.
Campaigning and governing are two different things.
Ontarians are extremely cynical that anyone will be able to do anything——
that Ford is willing to campaign on a winning federal issue says nothing about how he will actually govern—but he is the right person to deal with Trump, a point believed by a large plurality-—and a huge majority if one discounts “none of the above”.
He barely edged out “none of the above” on two of the other eight issues.
Trump tossed him an easy pitch and Ford picked up a ground-rules double. Fortunately a Harvard and Oxford educated governor of the Bank of England will have a harder time playing this card when the Federal election is called.
Doug Ford is not a conservative no matter how many times you say it. He is a fake populist and won because of no competition.
He is “relatively” conservative. There were six parties running candidates in most ridings. I doubt the “conservatives” finished worse than fourth. The two parties to the Right of the PC didn’t win anywhere, and I doubt they managed to place second anywhere. In my riding one did top the Greens, but that isn’t saying much as the Greens only have a handful of ridings where they are competitive.
If some of the “silent majority” were willing to show up and vote fifth party, we might eventually get somewhere. If only 2% show up, 25% stay home, and 25% vote for the lesser of two evils, one ends up with something better than the NDP and the Liberals, but not by much.
There were some ridings where the votes to the two conservative parties if added to the PC total would have resulted in additional seats, but when one is looking at seats 80-86 out of 124 total, the natural instinct would be to ask how many votes from the left side of the party would be lost by a move to the right.
Why is anyone assuming that what took place was in fact a free and fair election...?
Just because the U.S. in many places runs elections that ought to make Jimmy Carter turn in his grave doesn’t means that every place does.
There certainly are ways to rig things-—the party leader having, at least in theory and often in practice, absolute control over who gets nominated is a prime example. It is possible that in some instances ways are found around voter ID—but voter ID is standard.
Canada has inherited the British tradition of fair play, and while one may rig the rules, once they are rigged, one goes through the farce.
The difference among the four parties in Ontario largely is along the lines of who gets to be king, not in what types of decisions are made. Campaigns by all parties basically amount to promising to throw more money at any problem anyone brings up while simultaneously promising to balance the budget.
That is why the explanation better the devil you know coupled with low expectations, and confirmed by the polls, is so convincing.
There are six or so ridings with a margin of under 200 votes—the PCs are winning most of them, but they don’t need them.
I listened to the podcast linked to in my initial ping in post 3 of this thread. Informative, but especially given the medium, not worth posting as a separate thread.
Probably fifteen minutes of fairly dense analysis and facts intermingled with ten minutes of pleasant banter—a good listen especially for people who like statistical analysis (if you like Nate Silver on politics you’ll love these guys).
Biggest take aways-—only seven seats changed hands even though vote share shifted greatly-—and the numbers aren’t final. There are still outstanding mail-in ballots etc. to count, which makes the closest NDP writing a statistical tie (and so remains a potential 81st PC seat) and the two closest PC writings quite flippable by the liberals (leads of 20 and 40 votes).
Here is the text that accompanies the youtube post, that is a sort of precis written after the podcast:
Doug Ford gambled when he called an early election, but it paid off in spades last night as his Progressive Conservatives won their third consecutive majority government. It wasn’t necessarily the bigger mandate he wanted, but a win’s a win. And that was a win.
The surprise of the night, though, was the performance of Marit Stiles’s NDP. The party’s vote went down significantly, as the polls predicted. But the NDP still managed to squeeze a lot of seats out of a lot less of the vote, as incumbency ruled the day in what was an otherwise status quo election. We try to make some sense out of how the NDP managed to defy expectations. And what do we make of the performance of Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals — good enough to regain recognized party status, but not good enough to get their leader elected?
CORRECTION: Toronto–St. Paul’s flipped from the NDP to the Liberals, not Toronto Centre. Apologies for the error!
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