Posted on 11/05/2024 7:19:49 AM PST by lasereye
DJT is shooting up this morning (up 13.5%)...and solar....a kamala trade is lagging.
Good signs. Also, volatility is going down too.
“DJT is going up big time right now. Yesterday also. Looking good right now.”
Up to 62 last March. Down to 12 last month. Up to 56 last week. Down to 28 last week. Now 39.
There is a guy in Omaha that disagrees with your opinion.
Warren Buffet has a 300 Billion cash position in Berkshire Hathaway. He thinks the market is way overpriced. He has continued to sell his large positions in Apple and Bank of America. Some of these are very long term buys.
We are at record highs on everything. We are overdue for a recession.
Just to show you I put my money where my mouth is I sold everything stock based in July. With the exception of a solar ETF and Matthews China Fund. Which are both currently priced less than what I paid for them for them when Biden was elected.
Wait... So, do I BUY or SELL that Solyndra stock?
“Good signs. Also, volatility is going down too.”
56 to 28 to 40 in one week is reduced volatility?
Well, I’m not going to buy high. That’s just what they expect us to do.
The VIX...which is how I look at volatility, has gone off a cliff since 9:15 this morning and shed 7.5% in the last two hours.
That shows a tend towards certainty...versus the other way around.
Two stocks that come to mind at first are Ruger and Henry, as USA benefactors, and I am sure that there are more. I believe that even Glock is made in USA.
Your missing the point I think...because you keep referencing things from last week last month..whatever. Im looking at what wallstreet is doing this morning for their sentiment.
This is the point. If wallstreet was feeling shaky or seriously doubting a Trump win this morning...would DJT be up 14% Today?
“Stocks are already overpriced. We are in an irrational bubble. Might as well short-sell.”
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
“That shows a tend towards certainty...versus the other way around.”
One day doesn’t make a trend.
The trend is up.
Oh brother....
I know what the trend is dude. I buy and sell options all the time....so Im keen on Volatility and the vix.
Volatility has been on an upward trend for the last month...because of the election....and the fed meeting this week.
The point im trying to make....so bear with me....is TODAY.....meaning since the market opened TODAY......the vix is headed down briskly....
Its not headed up briskly...which would mean wall street is uncertain about the election today....its head DOWN....meaning there is growing confidence in an outcome...TODAY.....
So Yes...the month long trend is UP.....as one would expect for a US election that is this consequential.... but today’s trend is DOWN significantly for reasons I already explained.
Yes? No?
Some Glocks are made in Georgia. Most are made Austria or Slovakia. Glock is an Austrian company.
Similar to Sig Sauer manufactures guns in New Hampshire for the North American market.
However, Sig is headquartered and most manufacturing is in Germany.
“.meaning there is growing confidence in an outcome...TODAY.....”
The VIX is higher now than last week. Does that mean increasing uncertainty?
“The VIX...which is how I look at volatility, has gone off a cliff since 9:15 this morning and shed 7.5% in the last two hours.
That shows a tend towards certainty...versus the other way around.”
The VIX is not a measure of volatility. It is a forward 30-day view of uncertainty.
I am hoping my business goes back to Trump era profitability and work. I had employees, and more business I knew what to do with. Since the Chomo was installed. Nothing. 95% down at first now maybe 90% down. If harris wins (unfortunately I think she does) I am liquidating what’s left and accepting a long standing job offer for a politically connected company and run out the clock. It’s just not worth running a small business in the democrat economy. I could make it if I sold my soul to the marxist economic policies but I couldn’t live with myself.
What seems to escape you is that there is more than just the one trend you are fixated on.
You keep referencing weekly or monthly trends, when I am specifically talking about the daily trend in the VIX going down....and what that indicates.
But with that said...by all means..give me your snetiments as to what wallstreet is saying right now.
VIX is down almost 8%, today...DJT is up steady 14.5% today.....and Kamala Harris sectors like solar, have been basically flat which is significant relative weakness in relation to the broader market thats up 1% today.
So instead of demonstrating over and over again that you can read a 30 day vix chart....why don’t you give us your insight into what wallstreet is showing you today.
.
I was fortunate to sell at the high in the Spring. Rebought when it was pretty low.
It's been volatile, but an easy gain with patience and understanding.
It will likely be volatile before he gets inaugurated, but will likely be close to 60 or even higher as January comes around.
I agree. That's why I'm selling off some. If Kamala wins, I'll sell off a lot. The stock market is due for a huge correction in the next couple months. It will be real bad if Kamala wins, definitely a bad recession to come, with little chance of recovery. Even if Trump wins (which I think he will), the economy will suffer in the short term due to the destruction of the Biden regime. After the market drops, I'll reinvest for the slow climb out of recession.
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