Posted on 11/04/2024 8:38:43 AM PST by cgbg
Additional link for comparison:
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-pennsylvania/
Probably because they are going to need more than they are counting on.
Oh, ELECTION DAY voting! Had me confused for a moment.
The mail in voting and early voting is incredible this year—most folks have still not thought through what that means.
Imho:
—More likely for states to be “called” earlier tomorrow night, including “swing” states.
—More difficult for the Democratic Party machine to turn out their voters since anyone can claim “I mailed it in” even if they did not—and by the time the precinct captains figure out no vote was cast it is too late—the election is over.
There are probably many other implications I have not considered...
But we do not know if they’re (D) “brave” enough to show up on election day and vote in person...
I thought the (R) voters would be more——If we show up en masse on election day, that would “seal it”.
My entire family is voting tomorrow-—in person.
LOL, I know, right? There are multiple ways to interpret that.
Republicans are only .6M - the same as 2020?
I thought we were way ahead of where we were in 2020… now I’m confused.
So, what’s good about this news is that Democrats are way behind where they were in 2020?
Am I understanding this correctly?
In PA there was no official “early” voting—so most Republicans (who did not vote by mail) will vote in person tomorrow.
The Democrats are in deep trouble—they are hundreds of thousands of votes lower than where they need to be to win the state.
We are all with you—as you know PA is critical.
Interesting data. One possible explanation is during COVID the D’s bought more into the “fear factor” and were more likely to vote by mail. Now that the COVID fear has largely subsided vote by mail is reverting to historical norms.
But who knows? In any event it is hard to see how this is bad news for Trump. Could definitely be good news.
PA Early Vote Total (2020 versus 2024):
2020
Democrats - 1,702,484
Republicans - 623,404
2024
Democrats: 971,615
Republicans: 571,724
Difference in 2020:
Democrats DOWN: 730,869
Republicans DOWN:51,680
Note: Early voting is down across the board from 2020 because COVID is no longer an issue. But for Republican it is down a paltry 8% while for democrats it's down a whopping 42%.
Quite familiar with that alternative acronym are we? LOL
There are three kinds of voting—mail in, in person early, and in person on election day.
Pew explains:
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/10/24/american-voters-expectations-for-voting-this-year/
Democrats love to vote by mail.
Most Republicans hate it.
In PA there was no official early in person voting (though there were some local exceptions, not included in the data).
The Democrats go into election day 700,000 votes behind where they were in 2020.
They are in deep deep trouble in PA.
Good comments.
Here are my numbers from the reports dated 10/30
Dated 10/30
number party ballot_Status
880228 D Vote Recorded
501286 R Vote Recorded
308850 D Pending
206111 R Pending
122180 NF Vote Recorded
90838 NF Pending
26496 D Cancelled
15636 I Vote Recorded
14534 R Cancelled
8567 NOP Vote Recorded
7065 NO Vote Recorded
5983 I Pending
5426 D
3989 NF Cancelled
3882 LN Vote Recorded
Thanks-—We are expecting long lines in PA. However, my voting district is only 400-500 people and when I worked the polls in the past-—avoid early and late——We will go around 10:30 AM
Also comparing the registration data from 9/30 with the mail in report 10/30 there are about 1100 ballots in the mail in that don’t have ID for the delaware county registration report. I’ll get a more update delaware county list but it won’t make much of a difference as the 1100 are mostly foreign addresses.
There is an avalanche of presumed mechanisms of cheat and nearly all of them are wrong and silly.
1) The margin of 2020 win was tiny. 40some thousand votes in particular states. This was not some overwhelming cheat. It was very specific and very small.
2) The mechanism was absentee/mail ballots from false addresses . . . only in those states where the law or regulations said no address verify would be done. Not even in a curing process. THIS was how it was done. Hundreds of ballots sent to zealots at questionable addresses, picked up, filled out, submitted.
3) There were handcounts done several places. Their results matched Dominion machine outputs. The screaming about the machines was a stupid red herring that tainted the court precedents.
4) If you flow in bogus ballots from non verified addresses or signatures, you don’t HAVE to somehow bribe tabulation center officials to lie or cheat. That is yet another red herring that tainted court precedents.
5) Because of #2 and #4 you don’t need to have local tabulator people fooled so they can’t cheat in the count. Early votes serving as a restriction on them need not apply. The only issue is if ballots arrive from registered addresses with solid signatures and there have been imposed much more scrutiny of this now vs 2020. There is even pre election curing of these ballots — phone calls to the person to ask if they submitted a ballot and can they explain the signature etc. Much more scrutiny now.
Same here, I was thinking around 9:30..10am. Borough hall is usually pretty dead then.
What is really interesting is how many Democrats did NOT vote!
I am not sure, those people will vote later?
I think they will stay home, disgusted with their “candidate”.
More Republicans voting early could eat into deficit later, but less Dems, that is really encouraging.
One of the reasons I didn’t want to vote early is because going to the Media courthouse is always a pain. You have to deal with the one-way streets and those newfangled payment machines they replaced the old meters with.
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