Posted on 11/04/2024 7:38:35 AM PST by bitt
Twenty, twenty, twenty-four hours to go, I wanna be sedated." —The Ramones
The closing week of the 2024 presidential election is perhaps as close to what schizophrenia feels like as the non-afflicted will ever experience. Or at least that's how it's been for me.
"Nobody knows anything" was screenwriter William Goldman's pithy summary of filmmaking — and the same goes for this election. That's why I've spent the last week wildly oscillating between confidence in Donald Trump's inevitable victory to existential dread over Kamala Harris's with a few pauses along the rapidly sliding scale between the two.
Here's why:
Iowa's best pollster just showed Harris with a three-point lead. Iowa! Rasmussen's final cross-tabs give Trump 30% of the black vote and 49% of the Latinos and a three-point lead nationally. Reuben Rodriguez absolutely nailed the 2020 results and has Harris winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and the election. Atlas Intel was 2020's most accurate pollster and has Trump winning all those states with a 312-226 victory. The broader betting markets showed the race narrowing all last week. Trump started with a nearly two-to-one advantage that, by Friday, had shrunk to roughly 52/48. This morning, Trump is back up, 55/45.
The one question nobody knows how to answer — not if they're honest, a quality in frighteningly short supply — is whether pollsters have finally figured out how to properly enumerate Trump's support.
Frank Luntz says he's given up on the polls and is looking at turnout:
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
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We live in interesting times.
I have a dream. I have a dream of an election with paper ballots, in person voting, photo ID and hand counting. I have a dream of an election without polls, projections or pundits.
all I know is that I’m not going watch any of it, nor will I be online. While I have resolved internally that the election is fixed, I just don’t care to see it unfold before me.
I want, I pray, I hope that I am oh so wrong.
I posted this on another hopium-laced thread:
Many on both sides are desperately imagining "waves" and "landslides" that will deliver not just the White House but also the U.S. House and Senate. People, many of whom can't even tell if they've received the correct change at the McDonald's drive-thru, are suddenly mathematical geniuses when it comes to polling analysis and making the tenuous extrapolation from "Republicans are doing a little better in early voting this year" to the breathless assertion that this factor alone not only GUARANTEES a Trump win and GOP control of Congress, but it absolutely ensures a LANDSLIDE!!!
Crackheads on the left are dizzily contemplating Harris winning. . . Texas! Florida! Ohio! IOWA!
Their hopium-snorting counterparts on the right figure Trump has a damn good shot in. . . New Jersey! Minnesota! New Mexico! VIRGINIA!
Those who live in a bubble see and hear only what they wish to see and hear. We already know how our half of the electorate feels. Here's how the other half of the electorate sees the 2024 election, and those who occasionally venture outside the bubble already know this:
Republicans -- like in 2020, for example -- routinely grossly underestimate the amount of hatred-based enthusiasm Democrats are capable of, and hatred is an excellent motivation for voting.
Our turnout needs to surpass their turnout, or they get the White House (and that other House that's important too). We probably get the Senate either way, but having only 51 or 52 GOP Senators isn't really "control" of anything. Not when you look at who some of those 51 or 52 are.
If you vote in most countries of the world and several American states, your dream is a reality as far as the actual voting process goes.
People who wager real money often hedge their bets. That’s why they are not good indicators.
Polls schmolls. The only poll that matters will be taken tomorrow (tomorrow, and through early voting).
Yesterday there two polls out of Iowa: one had Harris up and one had President Trump ahead. So no one knows nothing.
Based on anecdotal signs, and discounting the comments on this site, I stand by my prediction of a Harris win. The main rationale is that Trump hatred and abortion will prove to be the decisive factors in her victory. Both factors are severely underestimated here.
One way that people could look at it is this:
Democrat hatred of Trump is certainly no *less* now than it was in 2020 — “Who in their right mind would vote for that Fascist?”
In 2020 Democrats ran a totally invisible candidate and relied mainly on Trump-hatred (plus fraud where necessary, and don’t forget how their ChiCom allies engineered COVID in order to help oust Trump).
In 2024 they are running a candidate who is hardly invisible, but one which WE see as being full of nothing but negatives — “Who in their right mind could vote for that idiot?” So obviously she should do worse than Biden, we want to believe.
But THEY see her as being nothing but a collection of positives for many of the reasons I already listed.
It still all comes down of getting more of us than them to vote. That’s always true, which means people underestimate massive Democrat Trump-hatred (and other factors they either misinterpret or prefer to ignore) at their own risk.
Even so, they should still get out and vote.
For example, in CA and NY — states where Trump has no chance — Republican votes are still critical in many districts where GOP incumbents are in grave danger after their fluke wins in 2022, and the loss of districts in those two states alone could flip the House.
I am totally in agreement with you. I will spend the day in prayer. This one hurts too much. The insanity is so widespread and far reaching that it has made me physically ill. I am old now and cannot handle what I once did. I also have so many other things on my plate right now, many of which I don’t see coming to a good conclusion ... Can’t make my retirement money again should this economy tank. Now, where did I put my rose colored glasses and my noise blocking ear phones?
I’m thinking about retiring, but this election has me scared $h!tless even though I’ve been calling it for the dems since 2020
I think Trump hatred is much more intense now than in 2020. All the previous factors about his temperament and pathologies PLUS the various indictments/convictions (need not be true) since 2021, and the Jan 6 episode all make him much more hateworthy for the left in 2024 than he was in 2020. We on this site have no idea how motivating that much hatred is. We speak of crawling on broken glass, whereas they are willing to walk through molten lava to vote against him.
I agree with you.
The absolute hatred Trump is viewed with is hard to understand.
Add his tax increases and tariff talk, a non elite VP pick, and the womyns desire for infanticide and I am not near as hopeful as many here are.
It is terrifying. I am right there with you. My retirement was due to health reasons so returning to work is a non starter. Fortunately, hubby still works. However, the economy is like the sword of Damocles hanging over our heads. 🙏🙏🙏
Sounds like a Huey Lewis lyric.
My wife retired and it’s not going to even come close to putting money into the bank. I was going to retire, but I’m not sure now.
If blacks don’t turn out in Philly, Detriot and Milealkee she losses period.
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