Posted on 11/01/2024 6:40:37 PM PDT by Tipllub
Trump leads Harris by a five-point margin in Pennsylvania — 51-46
(Excerpt) Read more at echeloninsights.com ...
Wow
I hope this poll is accurate and not an outlier.
The Trump campaign is obviously prepared this time. They’re probably not showing their hand to tip off the media and the Democrats, but it seems that there is a massive ground game in place in the battleground states. That might explain the desperate antics of the Dems in PA because they know the GOP is ready this time in 2024.
They have
39 R
35 D
Bal is Indy
Not sure if that matches other polls
That’s a high R number. I hope they’ve taken that into account.
Echelon is ranked 23 by 538, which is a decent rating.
Patrick Ruffini[1] is a Republican Party pollster and political strategist in the United States.[2] He founded Engage, LLC, a Washington, D.C.-based political media firm, and now runs the political research and intelligence firm, Echelon Insights
Poll is weighted 39% R
We have to win. I’ll be crucified at Thanksgiving by my liberal family members if Trump loses. I can’t handle that.
Don’t believe any poll until the last box of stolen ballots is found.
They have tie in both Mich & Wisc. President
Senate:
Mich Dem lead by 2%
Wisc Dem lead by 1
Penn Gop lead by 2
Last I checked, R registration is up. Leaners are breaking R. Early are breaking R. LPV are showing up EARLY, (do you honestly think this wanes?). Is it completely exaggerated to weight it so?
Last I looked, Dems have a nearly 400,000 lead in early voting in PA. The question is, who are they voting for? I doubt many of the blue collar voters are going to pick Harris.
But you have to compare that number to the early vote in 2020. In 2020, the Dems had 1.1 million more ballots than Republicans going into election day. Dems will probably end up with only half that going into election day. That means Dems have to get 500K to the polls on election day.
Pennsylvania Early Vote Update:
🔵Democrats- 947,214
🔴Republicans- 553,158
Dem Firewall- 394,056
I still haven't found any information on the missing 2020 EV Democrats. 625,000 Dems aren't showing up in EV. You might say well it was Covid and you might be right for a portion.… pic.twitter.com/s9ytzzlhLd— CoolHandElias (@CoolHandElias) November 1, 2024
check to see how many votes up in early voting the dems had in 2016 and 2020 in Penn then compare
Now that’s what I’m talking about! The pollsters know they have to start revealing their true numbers or they are cooked! They will never again be trusted by the American people never! Keep carrying the water for the rats and they will be exterminated never again to be believed!
The bottom line is that hopefully almost all the Democrats will vote before Election Day, leaving the vast majority of votes on Election Day for the Republicans. And I don’t think anyone really knows how it will go.
Trump really needs a good weekend to get the stragglers to turn out on Tuesday.
There is a better way to analyze the PA early voting:
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/10/24/american-voters-expectations-for-voting-this-year/
If you crunch the numbers you will see that PA Democrats are about 500,000 mail in votes below where they need to be to break even.
On the basis of that data—all else being equal—I am calling PA Trump +5.
Obviously I would like to see some in-person early votes to feel more confident about that number but PA has not released those yet.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.