Latest poll I can find in NY shows a 20% Harris lead vs 2020 23% for Biden.
California is 24% lead vs 28% 2020.
This is not a Trump surge (it’s not really a useful number overall since one number is actual measurement vs one an MOE sample) that would imply a battleground vs national differential is diminished — requiring her to have a 3% lead vs 3.5%. It’s not valid math to conclude that.
And maybe worst of all for the purity of the math, NY 2020 with the Covid VBM dominance had only 1% not voting Trump or Biden. There are other options this year in NY that are taking votes from Harris in polls.
I saw Trump down only 14 in NY last month, perhaps he’s fallen further behind since then.
Siena poll has Trump down only 13 points in NY, which is a 10 point improvement from 2020.
Unfortunately there is very little improvement in the actual battleground states where it counts.
Siena poll has Trump down only 13 points in NY, which is a 10 point improvement from 2020.
Unfortunately there is very little improvement in the actual battleground states where it counts.