Posted on 09/08/2024 2:16:27 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
In Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — all tight races — we see the larger contours of the entire presidential contest ahead of the first Harris-Trump debate.
What makes these states close? We'll unpack some of the factors that stand out, including who's seen as better for key voter groups, who voters think has the cognitive health to serve and what to make of the campaign and social-media rhetoric.
One one hand: Trump leads with voters who just don't think they're better off financially since the pandemic, whose incomes aren't keeping up with inflation and especially with non-college and White voters who say this.
The bulk of those White non-college voters, always a critical group in these states, say that opportunities for working-class people specifically would be better with Trump.
On the other hand, Harris holds her own in one sense. She's actually a little better than even with Trump on looking out for the interests of the middle class. Trump is also seen as much likelier to try to help the interests of the wealthy across states.
And in these states where housing is widely seen as unaffordable, Harris has a slight edge on having policies that would make it more affordable.
(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...
The Rats may be oversampled, but consider it a fraud bias.
Organized election theft should be a capital crime.
You know, if the MSM continues to repeat that the race is “tight” it sure does help when the cheat comes in, doesn’t it?
Tight race means Trump is ahead. Fraud machine at warp speed.
No way this is true. Then again, the Democrat/Communist Party?Left lives in their own reality ... a “reality” where only emotions — not reason or logic or even facts — prevail.
Trump’s Lead Is MUCH LARGER THAN YOU THINK! | 2024 Election Map Analysis (September 2024)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0lU-xfCtn8&t=7s
Her plans to increase the cost by $25,000.00+ artificially would not make housing more affordable. Especially since her open border policies are squeezing even further an already tight housing market.
An old, tired, and worn-out trope. It's dead, Jim.
“ She’s actually a little better than even with Trump on looking out for the interests of the middle class. Trump is also seen as much likelier to try to help the interests of the wealthy across states.”
Anyone who believes that either of these things is true listens only to the propaganda media. Both are complete lies.
The internals.
1) It’s a lot of work to get at their turnout model.
2) Michigan — 33.9% Dem, 32% GOP, 32% Independents, Women 55%. 2020 Women 54%. There is a 5% lead for Trump among Independents. Michigan does not register by party. The estimate is in the model for other sources.
Pennsylvania — 1% lead for Trump among Independents. Dems 37%, GOP 36%, Ind 25%. State registration supports this turnout mix parameter. Women 53%. 2020 Women 54%.
Wisconsin — 4% lead for Harris among Independents. Dems 34%, GOP 34%, Independents 31%. Women 53%. 2020 Women 53%.
Wisconsin does not register by party.
I don’t see any absurd sampling in this. There continues to be motion in various turnout models to increase the presumed Independent turnout.
Note, Trump needs only 1 of these states to win, given overall odds of the others. Also REMEMBER . . . 270 is not enough for anyone to win. There will be faithless electors.
This is a very simple-minded, linear analysis, with some absurd unsubstantiated statements like “The pollsters are much more likely to oversample Democrats this time around”, etc. Great caution is warranted for viewers of this video. Such simple-minded analyses crop up every 4 years on right wing blogs.
Just remember that the media needs this to be close. It’s the only thing that will drive clicks and views and ratings. That is the only way these companies can make any revenue. Without the “drama” they will go broke.
And polls are not going to change anyone’s mind.
“CBS declares Harris winner in debate”
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