The “convention bounce,” whether R or D, often involves temporary enthusiasm. For example, John McCain temporarily caught up to Barack Obama in 2008. Let’s see where the polls level out in a week or two.
In the nationwide vote (not polls) we can lose by 2 points and win in the Electoral College. In the nationwide polls, because of polling bias, we can expect Trump to outperform by up to 3 points. So, we can be down in the nationwide polls by as many as 5 points and feel pretty confident that we’re going to win.
With regard to state polls, the bias isn’t uniform. But, think 3 points on average. Considering poll bias, I’m thinking we have a good chance winning all the so-called battleground states along with several of: ME at large, MN, NE #2, NH, NM and VA.
I was just looking at New Hampshire the other day. It’s a registration state, and is polled frequently enough. The state polls almost uniformly give the edge to the Democrats by a point. But, actual registration has swung Republican since four years ago. We’ve gone from a 1 point advantage in registration, to a 5 point advantage. So, I’m pretty confident we’ll do better than the polls show in this state.
“I was just looking at New Hampshire the other day. It’s a registration state, and is polled frequently enough. The state polls almost uniformly give the edge to the Democrats by a point. But, actual registration has swung Republican since four years ago. We’ve gone from a 1 point advantage in registration, to a 5 point advantage.”
The “trend” in NH is mostly pretend.
In November of 2020 Democrats had a 1.3% advantage in registrations. As of December 2023, over 3 years later, the GOP had caught up and had a slight advantage, nowhere near “5 points”.
But just a few days later GOP registrations DID spike. It’s almost as if some event was upcoming that Democrats wished to vote in, but couldn’t do so unless they switched parties.
Something like the high profile first-in-the-nation presidential primary. With nothing contested on the Democrat side, these switchers now could vote against Trump in January — and then against in November if necessary. They don’t have to reregister as Democrats in order to do that last part.
By a remarkable coincidence, the GOP registration surge ceased immediately after the primary.
Trouble is in Wisconsin with the evil Never Trump weasel Speaker Robin Vos and his fat slob of a minion RPW Chair Brian (judge me by my results) Schimming calling the plays, results are baked in. They are just waiting for the right moment to put the shiv in President Trump’s back