[Political Junkie Too]

The sample in this poll is producing confusing results.

1. Blacks say they are doing financially the best of all groups.
2. Democrats say they have the most extra money to spend of all the groups.
3. Democrats have dismissed the border and immigration as a factor in the election.
4. Young voters say they have extra money to spend, despite student debt being a major administration issue.
5. Over-sampling of women and under-sampling of minorities are potentially skewing this poll's results.

Poll Demographics:

Party Affiliation (seems okay to me):

• Democrat: 34.2%
• Republican: 33.4%
• Independent: 30.9%

Gender

• Male: 47.4%
• Female: 52.6%

I don't know why this isn't more even. Most polls have been +4 or +5 women over men. I suspect this is tilting the abortion result, the Harris favorable result, and the Trump unfavorable result.

Race

• White: 72.0%
• Black: 11.2%
• Hispanic: 10.1%
• Other: 6.7%

Based on other polls, CBS News/YouGov has been over-sampling white people by +5 to +7 versus other polls. This is diluting the impact of disaffected minorities.

Age

• < 30: 15.4%
• 30-44: 22.9%
• 35-64: 35%
• 65+: 26.8%

I haven't been looking at age stratification across polls, so I don't know how aligned this distribution is. One question, though: is the 35-64 range the prime abortion cohort?

Now onto the questions...

Q2: How would you rate the condition of the national economy today?

	Party ID			Gender		Race			Age
Response	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Black	Hisp	<30	30-44	35-64	65+
Very/Fairly Good	35%	65%	28%	13%	40%	35%	34%	49%	37%	45%	35%	32%	34%
Fairly/Very Bad	62%	30%	69%	86%	58%	64%	64%	46%	60%	50%	61%	65%	64%

Analysis: I'm not surprised at the Democrat response, but in what universe is the black population doing better than anyone else economically?

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Q32: How would you describe your personal/household financial situation?

	Party ID			Gender		Race			Age
Response	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Black	Hisp	<30	30-44	35-64	65+
I live comfortably and am able to save money	16%	22%	16%	11%	18%	14%	17%	13%	12%	18%	17%	14%	18%
I meet my basic expenses with a little left over for extras	33%	37%	31%	30%	36%	30%	34%	30%	31%	39%	33%	28%	34%
I have just enough to meet my basic expenses	33%	28%	34%	39%	31%	35%	32%	36%	35%	29%	29%	36%	35%
I don't have enough to meet my basic expenses	18%	13%	19%	20%	15%	21%	17%	21%	22%	13%	21%	22%	15%

Analysis:For the groups that say they are doing well financially:

• Democrats are doing much better than Republicans and Independents.
• The under-30 age group says they are able to save or have some money left over for extras. Isn't this the group that Democrats are targeting for college loan forgiveness?

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Q5: If the 2024 presidential election were being held today between Kamala Harris, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican, who would you vote for?

	Party ID			Gender		Race			Age
Response	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Black	Hisp	<30	30-44	35-64	65+
Kamala Harris	51%	98%	45%	5%	45%	56%	44%	82%	58%	64%	59%	47%	43%
Donald Trump	48%	2%	50%	94%	54%	44%	56%	17%	41%	35%	41%	52%	57%

Analysis:

• As expected, women and young voters are voting for Harris, while men and seniors are voting for Trump.
• Independents are breaking for Trump.
• Minorities are breaking for Harris.

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Q31: Factors in Vote for President

	Party ID			Gender		Race			Age
Response	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Black	Hisp	<30	30-44	35-64	65+
Crime
Major factor	62%	48%	57%	81%	61%	63%	61%	73%	64%	52%	55%	64%	70%
Minor factor	30%	39%	34%	16%	29%	30%	30%	23%	28%	35%	34%	30%	24%
Not a factor	8%	13%	9%	3%	9%	7%	9%	4%	8%	13%	11%	6%	6%
Gun Policy
Major factor	58%	67%	51%	54%	54%	62%	56%	70%	62%	55%	57%	56%	63%
Minor factor	30%	27%	33%	31%	31%	29%	32%	21%	28%	33%	31%	31%	26%
Not a factor	12%	6%	16%	15%	15%	9%	12%	9%	9%	11%	12%	13%	11%
Abortion
Major factor	51%	74%	45%	35%	44%	58%	50%	59%	54%	58%	56%	46%	52%
Minor factor	28%	20%	34%	29%	30%	25%	27%	26%	29%	29%	29%	29%	24%
Not a factor	21%	6%	26%	31%	26%	17%	23%	15%	17%	13%	15%	25%	24%
Inflation
Major factor	76%	59%	77%	92%	75%	77%	75%	79%	79%	72%	74%	78%	76%
Minor factor	20%	33%	19%	6%	19%	20%	20%	16%	18%	23%	20%	18%	19%
Not a factor	4%	8%	4%	1%	6%	3%	5%	5%	3%	5%	6%	4%	4%
The Economy
Major factor	83%	59%	84%	95%	82%	84%	83%	87%	83%	78%	83%	84%	85%
Minor factor	15%	26%	13%	4%	15%	14%	15%	11%	16%	18%	15%	14%	13%
Not a factor	2%	3%	3%	1%	3%	2%	2%	2%	1%	4%	2%	2%	2%
The state of democracy
Major factor	74%	84%	71%	68%	72%	76%	74%	79%	72%	65%	70%	77%	78%
Minor factor	18%	13%	19%	22%	18%	18%	18%	15%	20%	26%	21%	15%	14%
Not a factor	8%	3%	10%	10%	10%	6%	8%	6%	8%	9%	9%	7%	8%
The U.S.-Mexico border
Major factor	56%	28%	55%	87%	60%	53%	60%	41%	54%	40%	46%	62%	66%
Minor factor	31%	50%	32%	10%	28%	34%	29%	43%	31%	39%	35%	28%	28%
Not a factor	13%	21%	13%	3%	12%	13%	11%	16%	15%	21%	18%	10%	6%

Analysis: In order of importance of Major Factor

1. The economy (83%)
   • Republicans stand out as making this their highest factor in the election.
   • Blacks are the second highest group that prioritize the economy. Note that they were the highest group that felt the economy was doing fairly good or very good.
   • The Democrats are the lowest group that ranks the economy as a major factor.

2. Inflation (76%)
   • As expected, practically all Republicans think inflation is a major issue, and Democrats as a group do not.
   • Interestingly, seniors in this poll are not more concerned about inflation than any other group.

3. The state of democracy (74%)
   • The Democrats have been pushing "democracy" as the highest issue, and as a group, Democrats rank this even higher than abortion?

4. The U.S.-Mexico border (56%)
   • This ranked 2nd from the bottom. Unbelievable to me.
   • The Democrats ranked the border as the least important issue to them. Democrats are protecting Harris's "border czar" accountability and responsibility by dismissing the border as an issue altogether.

5. Abortion (51%)
   • I'm surprised that abortion was ranked as the lowest factor in the election.
   • Otherwise, all the usual groups ranked abortion higher than the other groups in this category.

6. I chose not to detail the remaining factors:
   • Issues of race and diversity (39%)
   • The war between Israel and Hamas (37%)
   • Climate change (39%)

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-PJ

[thegagline]

Thank you for posting this. A terrific breakdown and assessment of this poll.