I don’t pay attention to polls. They had Hillary beating Trump handily.
Has the country gotten smarter since then? I don’t think so.
And Trump barely won by the skin of his teeth and hasn't won anything since (except his primary race).
Lost the House in 2018.
Lost his re-election in 2020 (after he signed Pelosi's CARES Act ensuring millions of untraceable mail-in ballots were sent out and then stupidly told his voters not to use them).
Lost the Senate in 2021 after stupidly telling Georgia voters not to bother voting.
And nearly every one of his hand-picked midterm candidates went down to defeat in 2022.
Trump has been the best GOTV drive the Democrats have which is why they wanted him so desperately to be at the top of the ticket in 2024.
And, yes, I hope he wins in 2024 but I will not be surprised if he doesn't.