Posted on 08/11/2024 5:38:32 PM PDT by libh8er
Sounds about right. So the advantage goes to the Democrats.
“Some pollsters expect a 55/45 turnout of women vs men. Some expect a 12% black turnout vs others expecting 10%.
Sounds about right. So the advantage goes to the Democrats.”
This was a generic example. Not a comparison of actual pollster choices.
But if you’re curious:
From ChatGPT:
Blacks are 13.5% of US population (incl children)
63% of the adult black population is registered to vote.
2020 62% of eligible black voters turned out.
So with 13.6% of the population and 65% turning out, that’s 8.84% of the entire US population. Using a 12% of total population as black votes (to which the 75/25 Harris/Trump ratio would apply) is somewhat absurd.
Btw Obama only got 67% black turnout. (of registered)
CBSNews explicitly says they oversampled blacks — and only managed a 2-3% Harris increase. It’s just not that many votes in the reservoir
Seth Keshel, who has been crunching AZ numbers for a few years, says that Trump can even lose Maricopa and still win the state with the massive shifts going on in all the other counties.
This is horse pucky. No way Trump wins PA by more than he wins AZ.
Today’s Maricopa Co. registration numbers R+160,400. That’s 30,000 MORE than the ENTIRE STATE in 2020. Overall MC will be R+2-3 on ED, AZ will be at least 6.6 maybe R+7. Trump wins AZ by 3-4 points.
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