How reliable is Rasmussen? In the past few years, it seems to me to be overly optimistic for Republicans.
Rasmussen is NOT what it once was, anymore it should be considered a right wing advocacy organization... sadly. The original guy sold it and the new guys are just pundits more than anything.
At the state level, they were not biased toward Republicans or Trump in 2020. If anything it was the opposite. They were fairly accurate at the national level, showing Biden ahead by 1%.
They had Republicans picking up a lot more seats in 2022. I think a lot of the major media polls also predicted that.