“Let’s just say you know nothing and leave it at that, ok?”
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed
I have not been able to see the cross tabs for Rasmussen.
I think it is behind a paywall.
The fact they have such a constant number is reassuring they did not change their turnout model.
The reason a constant number is so credible is that the vast majority of Dem voters are voting against Trump. They didn’t care who their candidate is or was. They didn’t even care about the debate. Trump hatred.
So things like Biden dropping out would not move the needle, and as far as I have seen it has not moved the needle. There are crosstab issues with every poll that showed a change.
CBS News explicitly said they were going to oversample blacks (meaning sample them above their turnout model).
Marist is a lot more subtle. They elevated their raw turnout number from a week or two prior from 76% to 87%. (meaning those who say they absolutely will vote as a % of Registered — sort of the ultimate LV) I can’t figure out what that is for. Turnout was 67% in 2020 and that was with all the VBM procedures in place.
CNBC’s cross tabs today are not yet visible. From last month, nothing looked bizarre. T+2 last month and T+2 today.