Hurricane Debby

NOAA/NHC ^ | 2 August 2024 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Heads up Florida Keys and FL Gulf Coast...

[NautiNurse]

The tropical system is anticipated to turn NW, slowing its forward progress. It is
anticipated to develop into TS Debby.

This month marks 20 years since little Hurricane Charley raked the FL Peninsula.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southwest coast of the FL peninsula from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande


A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas
* The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge
* The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Boca Grande to the mouth of the Suwannee River

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

[janetjanet998]

Was just going to ping you to start a thread

Models had the track over the spine of Cuba over land so the intensity isn’t that high

However seems it is taking a left turn (west) and/or reforming south off the coast ???

If this is true then the Intensity models may be underplaying in the short term (which I’ll be the longer term too)

I should note the waters in the eastern gulf are very warm and running 2-3 degrees above normal

The storm should turn north then NE. And ad I have Talked about in previous years this has the “worst case scenario” path for Tampa

With a NNE moving storm just offshore funneling surge into the bay

Of course the intensity has the be a CAT 3 plus but at least the path in the case is a possibility

Also the Euro stalls it off SC coast later and moves quickly west into SC

[NautiNurse]

Thanks for checking in with your always well-thought analysis.

We have so many newbies living in Florida who may underestimate how quickly a storm can strengthen in the FL Straits and Gulf of Mexico. Add to that the FL Gulf Coast topography, where the slightest change in storm direction will cause a big change in storm surge for coastal populations.

[DIRTYSECRET]

I’d hate to see that on Election Day on the redneck Riveria.

[NautiNurse]

This storm system will be long gone by August 20.

[fso301]

Summer weather!

[MplsSteve]

It’s early on in the game - but we have one (1) pending National Park closure already...

DeSoto National Memorial (Bradenton) - https://www.nps.gov/deso/index.htm

[John S Mosby]

Here is nat hurricane center as of 5 PM EDT:
Properly called a tropical depression TD4 as posted here with top winds currently 30 mph. iow a big tropical thunderstorm with waves of storm formations that could become cyclonic, a little confusing is whether it will be a cyclone. Even so the storm track of the Tropical Storm so indicated once past the Lower Keys— is an S 39-73mph winds, a notable concern. Farmer friends in FL need the rain, finally (been in a drought for several months).

---

“Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, located over eastern Cuba.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. “

That last line supersedes all the other % chances— and really gums up the forecast— which is it- 90% through 7 days or “formation not expected during next 7”. guess they don’t know until it gets over open water.

[NautiNurse]

Translation:

The system over Cuba has a 90% chance of development into a tropical cyclone. Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the Atlantic basin during the next 7 days.

[John S Mosby]

Good point— newcomers pay attention. Friends there say this reminds them of Charley as you have mentioned, though this one seems to be sneaking up- and maybe a nasty surprise cyclone.

Thanks posting all the templates- the model tracks all come up to the Outer Banks. The two UK and Canadian show going further out in the Gulf, which is worrying to cyclone formation.

[John S Mosby]

The Gulf not being the Atlantic thus higher % cyclone formation— that correct?

[xp38]

The official snack cakes of tropical storm Debbie

[NautiNurse]

If you are referring to the Gulf of Mexico (as opposed to the Gulf of Aden or the Gulf of Alaska or the Gulf of California or the Gulf of Tonkin), then the Gulf of Mexico is, indeed, included in the Atlantic Basin.

[NautiNurse]

Little Debbie and Hostess Twinkies are two good examples of non-perishable foods. At the end of times, there will be cockroaches and Little Debbie snak cakes.

[Texas resident]

Newcomers pay attention. Listen to the long timers.

Good advice. Never turn your back on a storm in the gulf.

[John S Mosby]

Surely you cannot be this obtuse- the track goes through Gulf of Mexico. Never mind.

[NautiNurse]

Rainfall potential:

Mash graphic to enlarge

[dkGba]

You’re so nice for always doing this. Thank you.

[Robert A Cook PE]

Rains all up the FL, SC, and then GA eastern coasts, eh?