Unfortunately I will have to take Rasmussen with a microscopic grain of salt. Their 2022 Red Wave prediction didn’t quite happen. I will wait for other polls to back this up.
I believe Rasmussen polls are biased towards GOP. It’s probably closer to 49-45.
It is really difficult to know if the red wave would have happened or not. Lindsay’s proposal for a federal law to outlaw abortions nation wide after fifteen weeks.
His proposal drew a lot of pro abortion voters. It certainly gave the Democrats control of the Minnesota legislature.
the red wave was calmed by ballot harvesting
all the polls said a red wave, The Dobbs decision/Roe v Wade “froze” the elections nationwide.