Poppy Bush, George H. ran for re-election but did that campaign so poorly makes one think he threw it to Clinton on purpose as if he feigned it.
[Six presidents have opted to not run for re-election. Here is a list with how many months before hand and the resulting success or failure at the election. And note that all of these happened 7 months before hand and this time we are already around 4 months.
James K. Polk, 11 mos., President No, Senate Yes, House Yes.
James Buchanan, 12 mos., President No, Senate No, House No.
Rutherford B. Hayes, 12 mos., President Yes, Senate No, House No.
Calvin Coolidge, 14 mos., President No, Senate No, House No.
Harry S. Truman, 8 mos., President No, Senate No, House No.
Lyndon B. Johnson, 7 mos., President No, Senate No, House No.]
I can’t read minds, but I think Warner’s reasoning is that this election cycle is shot. Nobody likes Harris, but rejecting her in a regular primary would alienate blacks, who might not vote GOP, but could stay home. So the best thing is to administer a death blow to Harris’s political career by having her lose in a landslide to Trump, so there’s no possibility of a Harris 2028 run.
Fetterman is more optimistic about Biden’s chances. There’s always the outside possibility that Trump could tank his numbers by saying something nice about Hitler or Jim Crow, something that’s literally true while being besides the point. Biden’s not behind by double digits. And the recent downbeat poll numbers were the result of the Democrat media beating up on Biden, for a change. Two or three points just isn’t that big a move. Once they ease off, after recognizing that Joe isn’t quitting, and start lionizing him again while depicting Trump as literally Hitler, the numbers could swing back in Biden’s favor. Trump’s unfavorables are so high, it wouldn’t take much of a bump for Biden to eke out a win.
There’s nothing inherently bad about either approach. Their problem is that they’re working at cross purposes. Every day Warner does his thing to discredit Biden makes it more likely Joe will give what he views as an effort to humiliate him the middle finger. So maybe Biden loses in a landslide, and Harris becomes the Democrat front runner in 2028 - the worst of both worlds.
There’s always a tendency to see your adversary as a gigantic, centrally-directed bee hive. In reality, they are at each other’s throats for the usual reasons. There’s only one presidency on offer and armies of ambitious men either gunning for the spot or joining the entourages of the major contenders. While there are tactical alliances, it really is every man for himself.
Ideologies and political parties are just vehicles for personal ambition. When Mark Warner drums up a case against Biden, he’s not doing it for the good of the Democrat party - he’s making a play for 2028. He did do an exploratory review for a White House run in 2008, then discovered he was a nobody with zero name recognition. If he manages to turf Biden, maybe he can sell himself as the savior of the Democrat party in 2028.