The presidency is the closest thing to king of the world that anyone can get. For Biden or any other nominee, there is no upside to getting out. Trump lost popular majorities in two elections. He’s also gaffe-prone. If Biden decides to get out, he truly is senile. If he stays in, he has a shot at a second term. If he gets out, he never will. It really is that simple. His only downside is losing, same as it ever was.
There’s a take on this debate I’ve heard from a lot of folks on the right, that is tempting and understandable, but completely wrong— one that says that the Democrats knew Biden would bomb this badly and scheduled the debate early so they could move him out of the way.
Nonsense.
Most of the people closest to Biden who would have been making these decisions are Dem apparatchiks, but more specifically, they are Biden apparatchiks. They wouldn’t enjoy anywhere near the same power and access with his successor. For better or worse, their fates are tied to Biden specifically.
They had the debate early because they knew that while Biden was not in great shape, they had drunk the Kool-Aid and convinced themselves, at least to some degree, of the lies they have been telling for years to the American people about his mental state.
Biden’s people thought that if they worked with the most favorable rules, on the most favorable network with the most favorable moderators, and gave Biden a full week to prep, they would be able to get through it and even if they didn’t “win” it would be far enough from the election that voters would ignore a mediocre performance.
They were not counting on what a disaster it would be to have Biden fully unmasked 1:1 vs. a competent and energetic opponent.
Yes, Biden’s performance was such a disaster that it’s tempting to think “this was all planned” but that’s only if you ignore the levels of self-deception, lying and magical thinking that have dominated the Democrat party for years now.
That’s what was exposed on the debate stage last night.
The Biden campaign staff is making a lot of personal money off of the campaign (that's what campaign consultants do), and if Biden drops out there is no guarantee that they would be kept on in the replacement campaign. Biden is their goose that's laying the golden eggs, and they wouldn't do anything to stop that.
I also think that the Biden White House staff serves at the pleasure of Biden, they don't serve Harris. If Biden were to go all-out and step down as President, then his White House staff is likely to be shown the door with him and Harris will install her own people. This might include some Cabinet people, too, even if it's the last six months of the term. So the White House staff has a vested interest in keeping Biden around.
If there were one thing that was "planned," it might be the early scheduling of the debate, but for a different reason. It's possible that the Biden campaign felt that sooner was better than later because they knew Biden would only get worse, and they would find some excuse after the first debate to get out of the September debate, blaming something that Trump said or did during the debate, or what happens during sentencing next week, or if Jack Smith advances one of this cases, or something.
-PJ