https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden
In June 2020, Fox showed Biden up by 12. In its final pre-election poll, it had Joe up by 8. He won by 4. If that methodology (including sample and sampling) has remained consistent, anything less than a 4% poll lead may well be a 50-50 popular vote race in November. And Trump secured a decisive EV win despite losing by 2 to Hillary, due to his relative strength in key swing states. To be sure of victory, Biden arguably needs to poll 6 points ahead on Fox surveys.
This poll shows Biden with a 45% approval rating and his support surging with independents--the very people you would expect to be Trump's winning margin in the swing states
It makes no sense at all.