Posted on 06/18/2024 1:24:39 PM PDT by Vendome
Imagine San Francisco 18 years from now. That’s more than four mayoral terms, at least one fashion cycle and nearly one Van Ness rapid bus lane project away. Generation Alpha—who will be adults—will likely be calling Gen Z “out of touch” by then.
And—according to new long-term projections from real estate firm Avison Young—San Francisco won’t be left with a glut of empty office buildings anymore. On that front, the situation midway through 2024 is pretty grim. The city has the highest vacancy rate of any major market in the country—at more than 30%.
Using previous recovery periods as a model, the firm’s research team projected three possible years in which the city’s vacancy rates might again fall under double digits, as it was before the pandemic, when the office vacancy rate was considered relatively healthy.
The absolute dream scenario is 2030, which would require six consecutive years of record-level leasing activity. More realistically, if such activity ends up matching the same level as the early 2010s, things could return to normal by 2033. But anything less than that would push things back to as far as 2042.
The city’s overall office stock is likely to fall, experts say, as some get converted into other uses. Avison Young estimates some 10 million square feet of “functionally obsolete” office buildings might be pulled from the market, which would lower vacancy rates by decreasing the denominator.
“We’re going to be saddled with structural vacancy for quite some time,” said a researcher at a competing firm. “Because of the normalization of remote work, the situation today is unlike anything we’ve ever seen before.”
(Excerpt) Read more at sfstandard.com ...
...in your rear view mirror.
Recover?
Unlikely ever to see a recovery.
The Friscan voters will perpetually re-elect those that oversee the fungal overgrowth that has overtaken the once great city.
The only Frisco I know happens to be Frisco, TX, where I happen to live.
The office workforce will continue to decline across America. The whole idea of a company “office” is dying, and office buildings are an anachronism. And, nobody wants to work “downtown” anymore. Downtown’s are dangerous and dirty. San Francisco as it once was will never return.
And they’ll keep voting for them anyway no matter what.
And Spanish.
My younger daughter works for a IT tech firm in the SF Bay Area. During the pandemic days, they asked employees to work from home. The company paid for furnishings and equipment, and my daughter was happy to stay home in South SF while caring for her daughter. Best of equipment, motorized desks with multiple display screens on swing arms, fancy chairs and lamps, desktop computers and laptop computers.
Cheaper for the company than maintaining an office building, which they sold. There are no corporate offices to go to anymore. Company is doing well, and workers are happy (no commute to worry about).
Why should it ever recover?
It may end up like Detroit, the city which does not really exists anymore.
I call BS.
There will be a great quake before 2042 that will take out all the excess supply.
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