There is a difference.
Polling is NOT WHAT IT WAS. Trump never had substantial polling leads, averaged among many pollsters, nationally or in critical states. It did not happen.
But it is happening now.
From Sept to Nov 2020 the polls aggregate said Biden had an 8% nationwide polling lead. The election results were +4.4%.
BE AWARE that this was 7 million votes. 5 of them in California and 2 in NY. 1M in Illinois, which adds to 8 and the other states eroded that down to 7M. In no single state, not even Texas or Florida, did Trump win by over 1M.
The point is there was hyper concentration in Calif and NY.
This year, to date, the Trump polling aggregate is greatly stronger than that 8% number above. This is almost certainly a result of the explosion in Independent voters compared to 2020.
In all the battleground states, to date this cycle, Trump only has trailed in Wisconsin. So this article and leftist efforts in Wisconsin perhaps were not going to matter.
The hill to climb for the Democrats is quite steep. The techniques they are using to expand voting and allow arrival of late absentee ballots and dropboxes may very well work against them. It may allow more Independent ballots to be counted than would not have been.
Big difference between 2020 and 2024, is this time it’s Joe who has to defend his record.
The general point being . . . forget history. Things have changed. Abortion and guns and taxes and spending are not moving Independents.
They care about the Wall and they care about the Swamp. The Dems have not grasped this yet. They are campaigning as if it was 2004, not 2024. They are only 27% of the electorate and Independents don’t care about their worshipping at the altar of governance. Independents seek upheaval.