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I do not believe Trump will be convicted. I believe we will have a hung jury.

Lots of speculation regarding the jury, being New Yorkers and all. But Trump has showed some level of support in New York, so I can't believe that that jury is composed fully of people who want to send him to jail.

In any trial, the prosecution puts up a narrative (supposedly supported by facts) that gives a jury confidence to find the defendant guilty. On the other side, the defense needs to raise enough doubt about the narrative and the facts to return a not guilty verdict. By most all accounts (excepting the most deranged TDS sufferers), the prosecution has severely failed, but has been propped up by a biased judge. And the defense has been solid and consistent.

It's hard to imagine a guilty verdict, but a hung jury seems possible. Would this judge allow a hung jury? He seems highly motivated to be the man who sends Trump to jail.

Turley thinks there will be a hung jury, but I think he is way too optimistic. If the jury comes back and tells the judge they can't reach a verdict, he can tell them to keep deliberating. His jury instructions will basically amount to "find Trump guilty." He could issue a directed verdict of guilty but that would be less useful to Biden than to be able to say that "a jury of his peers" found Trump guilty.

According to one of the legal experts on Fox the other day, Merchan would not be able to order Trump to prison while he appeals. If that's the case, all Biden can do for the next few months is to call Trump a convicted felon all the time. I wonder if Merchan will be able to impose a gag order on Trump after the verdict if he is found guilty?