You’re right. Sorry, over 50,000 flip.
No, not a gift horse. But, no, they don’t flip a lot. In fact, the GOP lead in NH was quite consistent until recently.
This, like AZ, may well reflect a lot of more conservative out-of-states moving in. For ex., Rich Baris tracked generationally the AZ immigrants from CA, and found that the 2000-ish wave was slightly left, the post 2010 wave overwhelmingly conservative. I suspect these 44,000 are conservative MA residents escaping.
The GOP has led in registrations in NH except for the big flip in 2008, which flipped right back in 2010, and then the big lurch to the left in 2020 which has now been rectified.
If you want to see the wild fluctuations in NH, look at the state House elections from 2006 on. Huge swings towards the good guys in 2010, 2014 and 2020; the other direction in 2006, 2012 and 2018.
Sure they have 400 seats so the raw numbers would tend to be large sometimes, but swings of 80, 90, even 120 seats have happened just within the past 20 years. At THAT level, they go whichever way the wind is blowing.
All while consistently giving the GOP presidential candidate a percentage within a single point of his national average — every single election since 1992 with the exception of 2004 when Bush missed the average by a whopping 2 points.