Baris has for over a year noted that while in the past polls have somewhat overstated Trump’s black support-—which did not show up in the election-—that this time it appears to be real. Baris estimates AT LEAST 16 points, perhaps as high as 22-23. That would be double to triple the # he got in 2020. Other outlets now are confirming that.
Trumps black support in polls collapses when actual votes are counted. I doubt this year will be different.