” Even if Russia wins, she lacks the strength to fully occupy, rebuild, and keep Ukraine under control. “
Have you noticed how the Chechens are some of Putin’s most loyal guys ? Even after two devastating wars.
That’s what happens when people see which is the strong horse, and which isn’t.
In addition, there is a significant sense of betrayal and manipulation by the Ukrainians already. Which will only get worse with a blatant stab in the back at the end of this war.
That is liable to leave the Ukrainians in a most unforgiving mood.
Autocratic rule, kleptocracy, and wars of conquest are inconsistent with Russia's best interests. The result is demographic decline, the emigration of Russians with education and portable skills, and Western sanctions that weaken Russia even though they are not decisive in the short term.
How does beating Ukraine help Russia? Russia will end up with an ongoing political and economic liability because -- in spite of what Putin believes -- Ukrainians are not wannabe Russians. And, with Putin and Russia hostile to the US and NATO, there is little reason for them to make a peace deal for Russia's benefit. Arming up against Russia and waiting for Putin's death make more sense.