Posted on 05/13/2024 8:49:21 PM PDT by RandFan
President Joe Biden’s mediocre polling numbers and a difficult Senate map contribute to a somber mood for Democrats less than six months before Election Day. But there’s reason for Democratic optimism in one key Senate race, even as legal issues make one House member look more vulnerable while a GOP member’s status is in flux.
With the complexities of a potential independent run for reelection by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and Arizona emerging as one of the country’s top battlegrounds, the Arizona Senate race had been rated as a Toss-up for months. But Inside Elections has now changed the rating of the Arizona Senate race from Toss-Up to Tilt Democratic.
While the latest New York Times/Siena poll, conducted April 28 to May 9, showed former President Donald Trump with a 49 percent to 42 percent advantage over Biden in Arizona, it also showed Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego led former news anchor Kari Lake 45 percent to 41 percent in the Senate race.
That’s troubling news for Republicans, considering Lake has high, unfavorable statewide name ID from her 2022 run for governor and subsequent false claims that the election was stolen. As a result, it will be harder for her to change how voters see her. Gallego, meanwhile, is a sitting member of the House with lower name ID and has room to grow his standing.
The good news for Republicans is that they don’t need to win Arizona in order to control the Senate. If Trump maintains his overall advantage in the presidential race, Republicans have cleared the minimum threshold for control of the Senate by taking over West Virginia because the new vice president could break tie votes.
(Excerpt) Read more at rollcall.com ...
Why!?!?
BS article
Lake is indeed unpopular / disliked. However, that can be negated by making taking the mask of the Dem opponent to drive up his negatives to being on par with hers, and also making efforts to soften her own image. The race then needs to be reframed to being against the agenda of the Left, not merely about whether or not Lake is “nice.”
note that the same people call Trumps 7 point lead in the same poll a toss-up, while Gallego’s 4 point lead is deemed “lean-democrat”
LMAO
Lake Lags Behind Gallego in First-Quarter Fundraising
Gallego $9.6 million cash on hand, Lake $2.5 million cash on hand
Lake needs $10 million STAT if she is going to win this race. She is already way behind. She needs to already have enough to be on the air with a complete mass media campaign from now until election day - but she has nowhere near what she needs at this stage of the race. The Democrat there is in position to be able to control the narrative from start to finish with Lake on defense the entirety of the campaign.
Supposedly the base wants candidates like Lake, but they sit on their behinds and keep their wallets closed, leaving Lake and others twisting the wind to a massacre from the Democrats and allied organizations that are flush with cash controlling the narrative and superior field operations. Same pattern as every election cycle since 2018.
Where does it say that?
Hmm ok but where are the national party with the $$$ ...
She seems like a bad candidate to me.
In North Carolina, the Senate is winnable for the Democrats but they keep nominating bad candidates.
In "purple" states, you need quality candidates to win.
She can still win if it becomes an issues based campaign vs. personalities - but she has to have the money to control the narrative. Right now, she has not nearly enough to even begin doing that.
That money should only be supportive and supplemental. If you depend on it for the bulk of your campaign you are probably toast. And it is less likely to come if a candidate is not able to stand on their own two feet to start with as it is seen as a lost cause.
Nah. She’s not going to win.
Not with those fundraising numbers she isn’t, no.
Sounds like Arizona doesn’t have enough illegals.
She wanted to do the right thing.
The problem is that the media controls the narrative.
She's not a career politician.
It’s the third cycle in a row where Lake has been a candidate. They have attacked her relentlessly for 4 years. So I am sure she is fighting the democrat machine full tilt for 4 years it’s had its effect.
I dont know a single news outlet that doesn’t count Arizona as a “toss-up” state. But if Biden or a Democrat gets even the slightest ahead they quickly mark it blue and no longer in contention
O live in Golden Valley az.
It’s my feeling that the McCainiacs will stop at nothing to destroy Lake
She’s not a career politician, but she is as seasoned as one due to her being on the Phoenix TV news for so long. She knows the players, and she certainly knows how the media works. She is not naive.
Is it the millions of small donors that have filled Gallegos’s campaign coffers? O bet the bulk of it is from the usual big money libs.
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