If you weren’t paying attention, that potential situation was dealt with on Monday and Tuesday. Macron was doing his usual yapping about French deployment, Hakeem Jeffries had just floated the prospect of U.S. troops going in and Cameron was boasting that the Ukes (really Brit “advisors”) could fire their Storm Shadows into Russia proper. Putin reacted by immediately starting tactical nuclear weapons drills in the theater with Belarus quickly joining in. Both the French and British ambassadors were called in and dressed down. The unambiguous red line was given to NATO, boots on the ground means immediate crossing of the nuclear threshold and Britain was told any British base in Europe could be retaliated against if the Storm Shadows were used inside Russia. Tuesday the entirety of NATO was falling over itself trying walk back the idea of NATO boots on the ground.
You can put that idea to bed, there will be no NATO deployment.
If the Russians take Kharkov/Kharkiev relatively quickly or they fail sets the stage for this summer.
If Kharkov is taken look at the south and keep your eye on Odessa and see if Russia makes a move in that direction or continues on to start hitting Kiev.
If the Russians fail to take Kharkov or it takes several months and cost them a lot of men and equipment, then any further major advances will not happen this year and could change what Russia might be willing to settle for in any negotiation that takes place in the future.
We haven’t seen a climb-down that fast since the sudden end to the Kaliningrad blockade in 2022.
Maybe the Finns or Swedes will move on St. Peterburg, or the Chinese into Siberia.
Lots of old scores to settle with the 21st century Sick Old Man’s crumbling empire.
Putin trashed 50 years of detente to take Crimea. So, he can’t complain now if the crows pick him apart.