All RFK Jr needs is 15% to get into the debates. Once you are at that stage all bets are off. There isn’t a lot Trump can do one on one, especially if Biden doesn’t show which he has floated as a possible scenario.
I highly doubt at this point any debates will be happening.
Biden is incapable of debating... they can pump him full of stimulants and ergoloids and time box it, and pre package softball questions maybe.. but I highly doubt they will take the risk.
I agree if RFK gets on the stage, Biden is beyond cooked, of course if RFK gets to 15% in national polling Biden is cooked.
There is no doubt RFK on the debate state would have a major impact, but I still don’t see the math that he can win, or play spoiler for Biden.
Trump’s support among his 2020 voters, is consistently 95-97%... Regardless of their party affiliation. Biden’s is around 80-85%, and of those that have stated they voted for Biden last time, but intend to vote for someone else this time, 1/2 say they will vote for Trump.
Based on this, even if RFK were to consolidate all the Biden voters planning to not vote for him now, that only gets him into the high teens, maybe 20% on the high end.
If RFK makes the debate stage, I definitely can see him drawing move votes from Biden and convincing some of that 80-85% that say they intend to vote Biden a second time to defect, but enough of them to Win? Just not seeing it.
If he makes the debate stage he certainly could get some folks who didn’t vote last time to show up for him, and maybe pluck off a few previous Trump voters, but can’t see that number getting too big.
So, there is no doubt that RFK could draw some very large percentages for a third party, I don’t see him winning the election.
However, and this is a BIG however, thats all contingent on RFK making it to 15% and getting on the stage, and the debates happening.
As soon as the polls consistently show Biden getting far more hurt by RFK than Trump, I fully expect the Dems to unleash scorched earth to destroy RFK... So, honestly its hard to see if that happens RFK even making the 15% needed to be on the stage.... Then of course there is whether or not the debates will even happen at all.
We shall see.