The old Soviet arsenals are on track to be expended next year, all other things remaining equal.
A significant factor about striking targets in Russia, is that it would stress declining Russian air defense assets, dramatically further.
Will they protect the front, the refineries, the factories or the Capital? They don’t have enough to protect everything, and their total number of Air Defense systems continues declining.
We are entering a new phase of the war, with more advanced (but still outdated) Western capabilities being provided to Ukraine, like longer range ATCMS and F-16s (with their suite of munitions capabilities). The attrition is going to cut deeper into the old Soviet aviation assets, economy and Defense Industrial Base, as the ground combat equipment reserves are going through their last hurrah this year and next.
The balance of power is shifting, as Putin continues to pour his Soviet military inheritance into the grinder, and NATO and Allied defense budgets have increased in total, much more than Russia’s.
Time is not on Russia’s side, if the West doesn’t quit. This Congress could pass the 2025 aid appropriation before adjourning, and that would pretty much polish off the old Soviet fleets of Armored vehicles and Artillery, as well as several other key military capabilities.
Then China can pounce.
Keep dreaming.