Well.
I had D+40 in 2018 right here starting in June, and I was called every foul name in the book all summer and fall.
Turned out D+40 was exactly correct.
Most people here are believers in the FR Imaginary GOP - I'm not. I'm well aware that the only thing Americans hate worse than Democrats - is Republicans.
I really don’t think there enough competitive districts left after all the new maps for that to happen.
The Democrats are continuing to outwork, outraise, and out organize our side - big time. They also have fraud/trickery which favors them...but when they already are given every traditional electoral advantage in the book while our base sits on their behinds and keeps their wallets closed, any fraud becomes much easier to pull off (if it isn’t close, cheating doesn’t work) - if they even need it.
There is no way that things like Leftists stopping blocking ambulances from taking critically ill patients to the hospital and climbing up on it and dancing is something people would vote for if they were made aware of this...nor people taking kids to strip clubs, given x-rated books, etc. But, the Democrats have a masterful marketing campaign - flush with cash for ads and propaganda, with the media on their side, portraying Republicans as wanting to “ban” and “censor” things if they aren’t being provided by the taxpayers in schools and libraries. It is a winning message for the Democrats to turn abortion into the family values vote - when you are the only game in town marketing a message, that message is what will prevail. Not wanting strippers in schools is “discrimination”.
So...watching all of this, I would not be surprised with your prediction. We actually started out in a strong position, but the Biden / Dem ad propaganda campaign has now been in full force to establish and completely control the narrative once again with no opposition, their field offices are fully staffed an operating at full force, etc.
I am not optimistic at all about how this is going. I don’t see how we catch up...with a base that believes the key to victory is to party among themselves at boat parades, car parades, rallies, etc. vs. shelling out the cash and doing the grunt work while the Democrats are reaching out to the average people at home watching Andy Griffith and Wheel of Fortune, we are screwed.
Though I will add - this district and this retirement is not one of the reasons. This seat looks like it is as safe as it otherwise would be.