Uh Oh. US Fertility Rate Hits Record Low!

A troubling trend observed in America over the past decade grew significantly worse in 2023. The CDC just announced that the birth rate in America fell to just 1.62 births per woman. That's the lowest reproduction rate recorded in the United States since the government began tracking this data early in the 20th century. It also represents a two percent decline from the already-low rate recorded in 2022, meaning the rate fell by more than half in a single year. In other words, even if every single woman in the country were in a potentially reproductive relationship with a man, we would still be losing population before accounting for immigration. And nowhere near all of the women are in such relationships. (National Review)

The U.S. fertility rate hit a new record-low last year, continuing a persistent trend that will have significant consequences for American society.
The total fertility rate dropped to 1.62 births per woman last year, a 2 percent decline from the year before, according to newly released data from the Centers for Disease Control. The figure is below replacement level, meaning Americans are not having enough children to replace themselves, a development with major implications for the American economy.
The total fertility rate recorded by the CDC is the lowest since the U.S. government began tracking it nearly a century ago. It reflects a trend visible across the developed world in which women are less inclined to have children because of greater emphasis on career success and access to reproductive technology in predominantly secular societies.

Broken down by age group, the news was fairly consistent. Underage pregnancies are way down from the early nineties, which is good news. But birth rates for women in their prime birthing years from 18 to 35 were down across the board. This places the United States the furthest below the accepted replacement rate (to maintain a stable population size) that has been recorded prior to this.

Breaking the numbers down by demographics, the picture doesn't change very much. Latina women were the only group to see an increase in the number of births and even that was barely one percent. Birth rates were down among white, Black, Asian, and Native American women.

Some might argue that could actually be good news because, well... we have too many darned people already. That is also a concern over the long run and there are organized groups out there pushing for significant population reduction. But any sustained downward transition in population comes with a lot of societal pain attached. With fewer babies being born, there are fewer working people coming up in the next generation to pay taxes and support programs like Social Security and Medicare. Even if the birth rate were to stabilize at the new, lower rate, it would be several generations before the overall population stabilized and the books would begin to balance again. It's not clear that such a thing would even be possible.

So why is this happening? The NR article points to women in the modern era being less inclined to have children because they are prioritizing career success and accessing birth control. That's certainly part of it, but it's not the whole story. We have simultaneously been seeing an increase in fertility issues among couples who are actively trying to have children, both in the United States and in other countries. In Great Britain, the National Institutes of Health records lower sperm counts among adult males being on the rise. They attribute this to societal factors such as increases in obesity, poor dietary choices, and environmental toxins. The same conditions exist in America, so perhaps that's part of it. But this is another one of those problems that simply may not have a viable solution. Short of offering to pay women to get pregnant, there aren't many viable options. We can't simply start mass-producing babies in test tubes.

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