Posted on 04/06/2024 4:53:39 PM PDT by hardspunned
President Volodymyr Zelensky, in an interview with national television on April 6, called on international partners to provide Ukraine with modern air defense systems to defend against Russian attacks.
Russian troops have intensified their attacks during the spring, mainly targeting energy and civilian infrastructure. According to Ukraine's Interior Ministry, Russia has conducted around 30,000 strikes on Ukrainian territory in 2024.
As Moscow increased its attacks, the shortage of air defense systems in Ukraine became more tangible, particularly in the territories proximate to the front line.
"I will not tell you how many Patriot systems we have. I can say that to cover Ukraine completely in the future, it is preferable to have 25 Patriot systems, with 6-8 batteries each," Zelensky said.
(Excerpt) Read more at kyivindependent.com ...
Domestic cost: About US$1.09 billion (FY 2022) for a battery; US$4 million for a single PAC-3 MSE missileExport cost: About US$2.37–2.5 billion for a battery; US$6–10 million (FY 2018) for a single missile
They seem to be effective shooting $8 million worth of missiles at a drone. That is effective for Ukraine because it is all free. It's effective until there are no missiles and the Russians drop FAB glide bombs on their head.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12297
Congressional Research Service Report
Updated January 18, 2023
PATRIOT Air and Missile Defense System for Ukraine
PATRIOT System CostsOfficial PATRIOT system cost figures are not publicly available. According to a December 16, 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) article, “Patriot to Ukraine: What Does it Mean?,” a newly produced PATRIOT battery costs about $1.1 billion, including about $400 million for the system and about $690 million for the missiles. CSIS further suggests future U.S. PATRIOT battalions (U.S. PATRIOT battalions consist of four PATRIOT batteries) could cost up to $1.27 billion dollars apiece without missiles. PATRIOT interceptors are estimated to cost about $4 million per missile.
[...]
Considerations for Congress
Oversight questions Congress could consider include the following:
- What are the readiness implications for the Army and Combatant Commands associated with providing a PATRIOT battery to Ukraine using Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA)?
- If additional PATRIOT systems and/or interceptors are provided to Ukraine, will DOD’s security cooperation authorities be used in lieu of PDA?
- With the high cost of PATRIOT interceptors, will restrictions be imposed on what types of hostile systems can be engaged by PATRIOT?
No, I meant WWE.
The current “Fight” over Ukraine funding is completely performative and fake.
Biden could send clusters and land mines on a promise to pay.
The US has @500 Patriot launchers in reserve.
You are probably correct. The US has many ways to get around a Congressional obstruction. Among other things it could “sell” them to Poland or the Czechs on an emergency basis. The Poles could then drive them to Ukraine.
The Ukrainians have been conservative with all their SAM systems. Drones have been dealt with by much simpler point defense systems (from manpads to German Gepards to old style light AA guns).
The SAMs have been mostly used vs cruise missiles.
Part of the problem is that though Ukraine has other SAM systems, including Western ones like NASAMS and IRIS-T, only the S300’s and Patriot have the range and coverage to deal with cruise missiles over broad areas. They are extremely low, by now, on S300 ammo.
They can sell them directly to Ukraine if the Secretary of State “certifies” that it is an “emergency” and in the National Security interest.
FO, piano balls
The Ukrainians have been conservative with all their SAM systems.
The Ukrainians have not been conservative with anything. They have blown through all the equipment that the western allies could give them. They are low on just about everything to do with air defense, and what's left is in good part reserved for Kiev. They are low on just about everything to enable their ground forces to wage war effectively. It is sort of what happened to the Confederate army at the end of the Civil War. In addition to a shooting war, there is a war of logistics.
Where are they going to put their air defence? They relocated many of the few Patriots they had towards trying to stem the rout at Avdiivka. I think two or three got destroyed in transit. A couple more were Iskandered, I believe.
Currently, senior Uke leadership is on the run. Nowhere in the country is safe from a hypersonic. The troops and front line fortifications are FABed with impunity. The entire electric power generation system is rapidly being degraded to functionally dead. I assume the bridges are next. Where is their air defence?
How much did they lose during the counteroffensive last year? It'll be interesting to compare that to Gettysburg.
The western allies havent given them much vs their needs, which are great given that they are facing a numerous enemy.
Ex - They have all of three Patriot batteries (18 launchers plus 4 spares, of which they have lost 1 or 2). The US has @1000 Patriot launchers, active or reserve.
They have received all of 30-odd GMLRS launchers, HIMARS or M270. The US has @1500 of these.
You have to look at the numbers. Do not assert things without facts.
Given their situation they have been very conservative from the beginning.
The SAM situation can be resolved overnight. The US just has to fly in a bunch of Patriot missiles from their Euro stocks.
Will the US do that? Lets see.
Your other points are sheer catastrophizing. The Russians are (still) incapable of breaking through, or of operational maneuver.
I thought we were worried about Vlad conquering Europe and threatening the US?
Drop dead, Pukie-Ukies!
Wait until they try. You got catastrophe right, you better believe.
Vlad can credibly threaten some of Europe within the current time window, if they weren’t bogged down in Ukraine. This applies especially to the Baltics because of the geographic situation.
This window is closing as NATO countries build up, especially in the case of Poland and the general NATO upgrades to their air forces (F35 deployment for instance). Also the integration of Sweden and Norway into NATO.
A great deal will also depend on US leadership - the willingness and ability to use the enormous resources of the US. The problem is that US top level leadership at this point is execrable, and, worse, the US public is bitterly divided. It is very difficult for the US, currently, to perform credibly in defense of anyone.
A clever Russian attack on the Baltics may be possible before the US gets around to building up its forces in Poland. That will leave a NATO response as being a mainly Euro (and largely Polish) affair. Hopefully the US will have better leadership before the Russians are able to try something like that.
I read just this last week that the chicoms, relying on robotics, are making 1,000 cruise missiles a month. Meanwhile, back in the late great usa we build 400 to 500 a year by hand. I wonder if this is true?
Maybe z should tap the chicoms?
What’s your strategy for Ukrainian victory?
Hey Z, how about we send you 25 Swiss army knives. With sheaths. Wouldn’t want you to hurt yourself.
1. Hold off Russian attacks and cause casualties/drawdown on resources.
2. Do what is possible in terms of economic warfare.
3. Isolate Crimea and Zaporozhia/Kherson beyond the rail network.
4. Wait for sanctions to work.
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