I would not buy into that poll that much.
Kennedy will impact Biden and should
But I think the pressure on The Fed to do at least one rate cut is coming and I suspect it will be in June to inflate the market, depending on the polling in August and this is stretch, maybe a small rate cut in September.
The outlook for 2025 though is a different matter entirely. I expect to see Inflation roaring back, because it never left and The Fed will have at least 4 to 5 rate increases to battle it. So get ready for a full blown recession and a market decline. Head for Bonds to survive and preserve Capital. Even Treasury Notes will look good and CD’s might even offer great rates of 8.5% or better.
Inflation is still there and the real rate is running at about 8 to 10%, so Biden trying to sell a great economy will be a hard sell all the way around. All he can do is force Powell to do a rate cut to create the Illusion of prosperity. Reality we are creating another $1 Trillion of Debt every 100 Days or so and Spending is killing us.
Whoever is President will have a real mess to do deal with and will have no solutions for it.
Cutting rates during inflation? That’s a recipe for disaster.